Ekstraklasa · Sun · 12:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Jagiellonia are market favourites at 2.45, implying roughly 41% win probability, ahead of Zagłębie at 2.86 (about 35%).
The draw is priced at 3.60, implying close to 28%, keeping the three-way market fairly tight overall.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.79 carries an implied probability near 56%, versus the model's 53% confidence, giving a value edge of -4.88%.
No selections in the full value-picks scan cleared the site's threshold, meaning no outright market-beating price was identified for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.62 |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 8.88 |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | 9.22 |
| 0-0 | 9.3% | 10.73 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.09 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.21 and 1.17. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ZL | X | 2 · JB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.82 | 3.57 | 2.38 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Zagłębie Lubin host Jagiellonia Białystok in an Ekstraklasa fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Jagiellonia are priced at 2.45 for the win, implying a probability of roughly 41%, while Zagłębie's 2.86 price points to about 35% and the draw at 3.60 reflects around 28%. The gap between the two sides is modest, suggesting the market sees this as competitive rather than one-sided. Away from the result market, the site's model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 as its recommended angle, with the odds implying a 56% chance of three or more goals, slightly above the model's own 53% confidence reading. That gap produces a small negative value edge, so the pick is offered as a reasoned view on game style rather than a market mispricing to exploit.
Verdict: The result market is close, with Jagiellonia favoured but not overwhelmingly. The site's Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.79 reflects a plausible goals outlook, but its own numbers show a slight negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-confidence idea rather than a high-value opportunity. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:00 | Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa | 2.20 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.91 |
| 17 Oct 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.04 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 18:15 | Cracovia Kraków v Legia Warszawa | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.00 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce | 1.51 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.79, with a 53% confidence rating.
Jagiellonia Białystok are the market favourites at 2.45, which implies a win probability of about 41%, compared with Zagłębie Lubin's 35% implied chance at 2.86.
The draw is available at 3.60, implying a probability of roughly 28%, which keeps the overall market fairly balanced between the three outcomes.
The site's scan found no selection clearing its value threshold in the result market; the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.79 actually shows a slight negative edge of -4.88% versus the model's own confidence, so it is more a directional read than a clear value play.
Zagłębie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Białystok takes place Sun · 12:45 in the Ekstraklasa.
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