Ekstraklasa · Sun · 10:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Górnik Zabrze are priced at 1.80, implying roughly 55.6% win probability and installing them as clear market favourites
Piast Gliwice's 4.40 price implies only about 22.7% probability, the shortest among the three outcomes for them this fixture's history aside
The draw at 4.00 implies close to 25%, sitting between the two sides' win probabilities and reflecting a moderate chance of a split result
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.69 carries a market-implied probability near 59% against a 56% model confidence, giving a negative value edge of -5.38%
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.17 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 9.28 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.14 |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 10.25 |
| 0-1 | 6.0% | 16.61 |
| 0-0 | 5.9% | 16.81 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.81 and 1.01. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GZ | X | 2 · PG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 4.03 | 4.91 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.66 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.66 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.92 | 4.73 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.61 | 3.92 | 4.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Górnik Zabrze host Piast Gliwice in an Ekstraklasa meeting where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 1.80 on Górnik imply a win probability of roughly 55.6%, notably higher than the 22.7% implied by Piast's 4.40 price or the 25% implied by the 4.00 draw. That gap points to a home side seen as the stronger side on paper, at least in the eyes of bookmakers, though Ekstraklasa fixtures can still be tighter than headline odds suggest. Away from the match-result market, the model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 as its recommended angle. That price implies a bookmaker-side probability near 59%, while the model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 56%, producing a slightly negative value edge rather than a clear-cut advantage.
Verdict: The suggested Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 reflects the model's lean toward an open scoreline rather than a standout value play, given the negative edge versus market pricing. It is a reasonable consideration for goals-focused bettors, but the numbers suggest caution rather than conviction, and stake sizing should reflect that.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:00 | Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa | 2.20 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.91 |
| 17 Oct 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.04 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 18:15 | Cracovia Kraków v Legia Warszawa | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 12:45 | Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce | 1.51 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 56% confidence rating.
Górnik Zabrze are the clear market favourites, with best odds of 1.80 implying roughly a 55.6% chance of victory, compared with 22.7% for Piast Gliwice.
The best available draw price is 4.00, which implies a probability of about 25%, placing it between the win chances of the two teams.
No standout value picks were identified against market consensus. The model's highlighted angle, Over 2.5 goals at 1.69, actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -5.38%, so it should be viewed as a moderate-confidence suggestion rather than a clear value bet.
Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice takes place Sun · 10:15 in the Ekstraklasa.
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