Ekstraklasa · Sat · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Katowice's 2.2 price implies roughly 45% win probability, the shortest of the three match-result outcomes
Pogoń's 3.1 odds translate to about 32% implied probability, making them clear underdogs on paper
The draw at 3.85 implies around 26%, keeping the spread between outcomes relatively tight despite Katowice's favourite tag
The Under 2.5 goals pick carries a 41% implied confidence but shows a negative value edge of -5.63%, meaning the market price doesn't offer a statistical advantage by our model's measure
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.75 |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 9.89 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.42 |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 11.79 |
| 0-1 | 6.8% | 14.68 |
| 1-2 | 6.5% | 15.46 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.68 and 1.13. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.00 | +4.0% | 26% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GK | X | 2 · PS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.94 | 3.48 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.04 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.04 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 3.82 | 3.33 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.94 | 3.75 | 3.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Ekstraklasa action brings GKS Katowice up against Pogoń Szczecin, with the bookmakers clearly leaning toward the hosts. At 2.2 for a Katowice win, the market implies a probability of roughly 45%, comfortably ahead of Pogoń's 3.1 price (about 32%) and the draw at 3.85 (around 26%). That gap suggests oddsmakers see Katowice as the stronger side on the day, though far from an overwhelming favourite given the draw still carries meaningful weight. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model points toward the totals market, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 as the recommended angle. That price corresponds to an implied confidence of 41%, and it's worth noting the calculated value edge sits slightly negative, so this is presented as a measured observation rather than a strong edge play.
Verdict: Katowice are the market's pick to win, but the real recommendation here is Under 2.5 goals at 2.28. With a 41% implied confidence and a negative value edge, this sits closer to a fair-priced market view than a standout opportunity, so stake sizing should reflect that limited edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:00 | Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa | 2.20 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.91 |
| 17 Oct 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:15 | Cracovia Kraków v Legia Warszawa | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:45 | Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce | 1.51 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53, with a 61% confidence rating.
GKS Katowice are favoured by the market at 2.2, implying roughly a 45% win probability, compared to about 32% for Pogoń Szczecin at 3.1.
The draw is priced at 3.85, which implies an approximate 26% probability according to the odds given.
The listed value picks section shows nothing above the threshold, and the recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.28 actually carries a negative value edge of -5.63%, so there isn't a clear statistical edge identified in this data.
GKS Katowice vs Pogoń Szczecin takes place Sat · 15:30 in the Ekstraklasa.
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