Ekstraklasa · Fri · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Widzew Łódź are priced at 2.2 (about 45% implied probability), making them the market's favourite over Wisła Kraków at 3.1 (about 32%).
The draw at 3.6 implies roughly 28% probability, keeping the match-result market fairly competitive rather than one-sided.
The combined overround across the three match-result prices is close to 5.5%, typical bookmaker margin territory.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.77 carries a negative value edge of -5.44%, meaning the model's 53% confidence sits below the price's implied 56.5% probability.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WŁ | X | 2 · WK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.73 | 2.91 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.24 | 3.55 | 2.86 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Widzew Łódź host Wisła Kraków in an Ekstraklasa clash where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best prices have Widzew at 2.2, which implies a win probability of roughly 45%, against 3.1 for Wisła (about 32%) and 3.6 for the draw (around 28%). Those numbers point to a fairly open contest, with the home side holding an edge but Wisła and a stalemate both live possibilities. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 as the recommended angle. That price implies a bookmaker-side probability near 56.5%, while the model's own confidence sits at 53%, producing a negative value edge of about -5.44%. In other words, the pick is noted but not strongly backed by value, so bettors should weigh it alongside the moderate home-win lean shown in the match-result odds.
Verdict: The data points to Widzew as modest favourites, but the standout angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.77, despite a negative value edge. This suggests the bet is more of a market-aligned option than a clear value play, so it should be approached with normal caution and sensible stake sizing.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:00 | Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa | 2.20 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| 17 Oct 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.04 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 18:15 | Cracovia Kraków v Legia Warszawa | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:45 | Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce | 1.51 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 43% confidence rating.
Widzew Łódź are the market favourites at odds of 2.2, implying roughly a 45% win probability, compared with 32% for Wisła Kraków at 3.1.
The draw is available at 3.6, which implies an approximate 28% chance according to the odds.
The model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.77, but its own confidence of 53% is below the price's implied 56.5% probability, giving a negative edge of about -5.44%, so it is not a strong value signal.
Widzew Łódź vs Wisła Kraków takes place Fri · 18:30 in the Ekstraklasa.
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