Ekstraklasa · Sun · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Lech Poznań are priced at 1.51, implying around 66% win probability and clear market favouritism
Korona Kielce's 6.0 price implies only about 17%, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides
The draw at 4.75 implies roughly 21%, a modest but live possibility given the overall market spread
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.31 carries a negative value edge of -6.88%, meaning the model does not see it as a priced advantage despite flagging it
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.8% | 8.46 |
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 9.02 |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 9.59 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.21 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 14.93 |
| 0-1 | 6.3% | 15.92 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.76 and 0.94. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LP | X | 2 · KK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.48 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.63 | 5.87 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.51 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.51 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.55 | 5.87 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.44 | 4.55 | 5.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lech Poznań host Korona Kielce in an Ekstraklasa fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about who is expected to come out on top. Lech are priced at 1.51 with Unibet, which converts to an implied probability of roughly 66%, making them clear favourites. Korona, at 6.0 with Coolbet, are given only about 17% by the market, while the draw at 4.75 sits at around 21%. Those numbers point to a game where the hosts are expected to control proceedings, though Ekstraklasa form can still produce upsets against long odds. Rather than back the match result outright, our model points toward the goals market, flagging Over 3.5 goals at 2.31 with 1xBet. That price implies a break-even probability near 43%, against a model confidence of 40%, so this is presented as a watch rather than a strong edge.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Lech Poznań, but no match-result selection clears our value threshold. The highlighted Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.31 shows a negative edge of -6.88%, so it should be treated as a speculative, higher-risk angle rather than a confident recommendation, and staked cautiously if at all.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:00 | Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa | 2.20 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.91 |
| 17 Oct 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.04 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 18:15 | Cracovia Kraków v Legia Warszawa | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:45 | Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.31, with a 41% confidence rating.
Lech Poznań are the clear market favourites at 1.51, implying a win probability of around 66%, compared with Korona Kielce's 6.0 price implying about 17%.
The draw is available at 4.75, which implies an approximate 21% probability according to the market.
No match-result selection meets the value threshold in our data. The model flags Over 3.5 goals at 2.31, but this comes with a negative value edge of -6.88%, so it is not a strong value pick.
Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce takes place Sun · 15:30 in the Ekstraklasa.
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