League tables

Tables tell you what happened — prices tell you what's next

Standings are the most-read page in football and the most over-read in betting. Position aggregates months of results, luck included, and says nothing directly about the next ninety minutes. Our model deliberately ignores it, rating clubs on time-decayed scoring and conceding rates instead, then comparing the resulting fair odds against the best price available.

Where tables earn their keep is context: promotion pushes, relegation fear, dead rubbers in May. That is information about motivation, which no rate-based model can see — and one of the honest limits we publish on our model page. Read the table for the story, read the price for the probability.