Ekstraklasa · Sat · 18:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Legia Warszawa priced at 2.45 implies around a 41% win probability, the shortest price in the match, making them the market's preferred side.
Cracovia Kraków's 2.9 odds put their implied win chance at about 34%, a meaningful but not dominant gap behind Legia.
The draw at 3.4 carries an implied probability near 29%, keeping a stalemate a realistic outcome in the market's eyes.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.01 shows a -5.6% value edge against the model's 47% confidence, indicating fair-to-slightly-unfavourable pricing rather than a clear edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.2% | 7.57 |
| 0-1 | 12.5% | 8.00 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 0-0 | 10.2% | 9.81 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.33 |
| 0-2 | 7.7% | 13.04 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.06 and 1.23. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CK | X | 2 · LW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.85 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.80 | 3.41 | 2.47 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.43 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.43 |
| 1xBet | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Cracovia Kraków host Legia Warszawa in an Ekstraklasa fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Legia's best price of 2.45 implies a win probability of roughly 41%, noticeably higher than Cracovia's 2.9 (about 34%), while the draw at 3.4 reflects a near-30% chance according to bookmakers. That gap suggests Legia are seen as moderate favourites, though not overwhelmingly so, leaving the hosts and a draw both live possibilities. Away from the match-result market, the site's model points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.01 as its recommended angle, translating to an implied probability near 50%. Interestingly, the model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 47%, and the calculated value edge is slightly negative, meaning this is a measured suggestion rather than a standout market mismatch. No separate value picks against the 1X2 consensus were identified for this game.
Verdict: The market frames Legia Warszawa as modest favourites over Cracovia Kraków, with the draw well within reach. The model's Over 2.5 goals suggestion at 2.01 is plausible given implied probabilities near 50%, but the negative value edge means this should be treated as a considered option, not a confident edge play. Bet cautiously and within your means.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:00 | Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa | 2.20 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.91 |
| 17 Oct 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.04 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:45 | Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce | 1.51 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 51% confidence rating.
Legia Warszawa are favourites based on the odds, priced at 2.45 compared to Cracovia's 2.9, implying about a 41% win chance versus Cracovia's 34%.
The best available draw price is 3.4, which implies a probability of roughly 29% according to the market.
The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.01 as its recommended bet, but the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -5.6%, so it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity, just a plausible outcome worth considering.
Cracovia Kraków vs Legia Warszawa takes place Sat · 18:15 in the Ekstraklasa.
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