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Français Market margin
Value check
EV = odds × probability − 1. Positive EV means the price pays more than your estimated risk — if your estimate is right.
Why the margin matters more than luck
Every bet you place pays a hidden fee: the bookmaker's margin. On big-league 1X2 markets it typically runs 3–7% per bet, and it compounds fast across accumulators. Over hundreds of bets, a bettor picking at random doesn't break even — they lose the margin, mechanically. That's why comparing prices across bookmakers (which shrinks the effective margin) and insisting on positive expected value are the only durable habits in betting. Our AI screener automates both: it strips the margin to compute fair odds and flags the prices that still beat them.
Margin FAQ
The implied probabilities of all outcomes in a fair market add up to 100%. Bookmakers price them to add up to more — the excess is the margin, their built-in edge. A 1X2 market summing to 105% carries a 5% margin.
A bet has value when your estimate of the true probability is higher than the probability implied by the price. Value does not guarantee a win — it means the price pays more than the risk warrants, which matters over many bets.
Divide each implied probability by the market total to remove the margin, then invert. If a 1X2 market sums to 105%, an outcome priced at 2.00 (50%) has a fair probability of 47.6% and fair odds of 2.10.