Ekstraklasa · Sat · 12:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.78 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.86 |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 11.35 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.57 |
| 2-0 | 7.1% | 14.04 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 14.18 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.62 and 1.29. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.00 | +4.3% | 26% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ML | X | 2 · ŚW |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.95 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.80 | 3.65 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.97 | 3.70 | 3.45 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.97 | 3.70 | 3.45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.93 | 3.65 | 3.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.76 | 3.48 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Motor Lublin host Śląsk Wrocław in an Ekstraklasa fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 2.08 on Motor Lublin imply a win probability of roughly 48%, noticeably ahead of Śląsk Wrocław at 3.45 (about 29%) and the draw at 3.85 (roughly 26%). That gap points to Motor Lublin being the stronger fancy without being an overwhelming favourite, leaving a reasonably open match-result market. Away from the outright result, the model's featured angle is a goals market: Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.60, which translates to an implied probability near 62.5% against the model's own confidence reading of 58%. That discrepancy produces a negative value edge of about 6.5%, meaning this selection does not clear the model's value threshold despite being its recommended pick for the game.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:00 | Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa | 2.20 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.91 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.04 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 18:15 | Cracovia Kraków v Legia Warszawa | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:45 | Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce | 1.51 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.35, with a 40% confidence rating.
Motor Lublin vs Śląsk Wrocław takes place Sat · 12:45 in the Ekstraklasa.
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