Ekstraklasa · Fri · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Wieczysta Kraków are priced at 2.4 (about 41.7 percent implied), making them narrow favourites over Raków Częstochowa at 2.7 (about 37 percent).
The draw at 3.85 implies roughly 26 percent, the least likely single outcome according to the market.
The combined overround across the three-way market is close to 4.7 percent, typical bookmaker margin rather than a sign of unusual market tension.
The model's Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.56 carries a 60 percent confidence level against an implied 64.1 percent, giving a negative edge of -6.72 percent rather than a clear value advantage.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WK | X | 2 · RC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.20 | 3.85 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.17 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.17 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.80 | 2.92 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.06 | 3.90 | 2.94 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Wieczysta Kraków host Raków Częstochowa in an Ekstraklasa clash where the market leans only marginally toward the home side. Coolbet's best prices make Wieczysta slight favourites at 2.4, implying a win probability of roughly 41.7 percent, while Raków sit at 2.7 (about 37 percent) and the draw is priced at 3.85 (around 26 percent). That spread shows a genuinely open contest rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.56 with 1xBet as its recommended angle. The model assigns this outcome a 60 percent confidence level, which sits below the bookmaker's implied 64.1 percent, producing a negative value edge of about -6.72 percent. In short, the 1X2 market points to a balanced game between Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa, while the highlighted goals bet is more about market read than a standout value opportunity.
Verdict: The match-result market is tightly bunched, with Wieczysta Kraków only slightly favoured over Raków Częstochowa and the draw priced as the outsider. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.56 reflects moderate model confidence but carries a negative edge, so it should be treated as a measured, not high-conviction, selection.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.91 |
| 17 Oct 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.04 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 18:15 | Cracovia Kraków v Legia Warszawa | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:45 | Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce | 1.51 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.42, with a 39% confidence rating.
Wieczysta Kraków are the slight favourites at odds of 2.4, implying about a 41.7 percent win probability, just ahead of Raków Częstochowa at 2.7 (around 37 percent).
The draw is available at 3.85 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 26 percent chance, making it the least backed outcome of the three.
The only highlighted selection is Over 2.5 goals at 1.56, but it shows a negative value edge of about -6.72 percent against the model's 60 percent confidence, so it is not flagged as a strong value play.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa takes place Fri · 16:00 in the Ekstraklasa.
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