Ekstraklasa · Mon · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Wisła Płock are priced as clear favourites at 2.08, implying close to a 48% chance of victory
Radomiak Radom at 3.6 and the draw at 3.85 are priced closely together, each implying roughly 26-28%
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.23 carries a market-implied confidence of 43% but a slightly negative value edge of -3.22%
No side of the match-result market or alternative picks cleared the site's value threshold, so no additional value plays are highlighted
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.78 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 8.99 |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | 10.22 |
| 0-0 | 8.5% | 11.82 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.48 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.31 and 1.16. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · WP | X | 2 · RR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.72 | 3.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.46 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.44 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Wisła Płock host Radomiak Radom in an Ekstraklasa fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best available prices make Wisła Płock the favourite at 2.08, which implies a probability of roughly 48%, compared with 3.6 for Radomiak Radom (about 28%) and 3.85 for the draw (around 26%). That gap suggests bookmakers see the home team as the most likely outcome, though far from a one-sided contest given the draw and away prices sit fairly close together. Away from the match-result market, the site's model points to the goals market instead, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.23. This pick reflects a view that the game could be tighter on goals than the win-draw-win odds alone might suggest, though it comes with a modest negative value edge, meaning the price is not generously above the model's own estimate.
Verdict: The model favours Under 2.5 goals at 2.23, suggesting a moderate expectation of a lower-scoring game, but the negative value edge means the price is not clearly favourable relative to the model's own estimate. Treat this as a measured, moderate-risk selection rather than a high-confidence angle, and size any stake with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:00 | Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa | 2.20 | 4.04 | 3.04 |
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Widzew Łódź v Wisła Kraków | 2.35 | 3.75 | 2.91 |
| 17 Oct 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.97 | 4.00 | 3.65 |
| 17 Oct 15:30 | GKS Katowice v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.04 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 18:15 | Cracovia Kraków v Legia Warszawa | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | Górnik Zabrze v Piast Gliwice | 1.67 | 4.03 | 5.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:45 | Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.82 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 18 Oct 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Korona Kielce | 1.51 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.23, with a 43% confidence rating.
Wisła Płock are the market favourites, priced at 2.08, which implies roughly a 48% chance of winning, compared with 3.6 (about 28%) for Radomiak Radom.
The draw is available at 3.85, implying an approximate 26% probability, sitting close to Radomiak Radom's own implied win chance.
The model's only recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 2.23, but this carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.22%, so it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity; no match-result picks met the value threshold.
Wisła Płock vs Radomiak Radom takes place Mon · 17:00 in the Ekstraklasa.
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