Brasileirão · Sat · 19:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Match-result odds are tightly bunched: Vitoria 2.64 versus Atletico Paranaense 2.72, a gap of just 0.08 in price terms.
Implied probabilities sit close together too - roughly 37.9% for Vitoria, 36.8% for Atletico Paranaense and 29.6% for the draw at 3.38.
The book's overround across the three outcomes is around 4.2%, a fairly standard margin for this type of market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals price of 2.02 carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.98%, and no other selections cleared the value threshold versus market consensus.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.03 |
| 0-1 | 10.6% | 9.40 |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 11.29 |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | 11.44 |
| 0-2 | 7.6% | 13.21 |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 13.39 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 1.42. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Vitoria's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VIT | X | 2 · AP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.38 | 2.72 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.56 | 3.28 | 2.63 |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.37 | 3.10 | 2.58 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.35 | 3.15 | 2.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Vitoria host Atletico Paranaense in a Brasileirão clash where the betting market sees almost nothing between the two sides. Best prices have Vitoria marginally shorter at 2.64 against 2.72 for the visitors, translating to implied probabilities of roughly 37.9% and 36.8% respectively, while the draw sits at 3.38 (about 29.6%). That tight spread points to a genuinely competitive match-result market rather than a clear favourite. Away from the 1X2 market, our model's recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, a price implying close to 49.5% probability. The model's own confidence reading of 48% sits just under that implied figure, producing a small negative value edge of -3.98%, so this is presented as a plausible lean rather than a mispriced opportunity.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.02 reflects a close-to-market view rather than a standout edge, with the model's confidence slightly below the price's implied probability. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk angle given the tight 1X2 market, but bettors should treat it as a lean, not a high-confidence value bet, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02, with a 48% confidence rating.
The market gives Vitoria a very slight edge at 2.64 compared to 2.72 for Atletico Paranaense, implying probabilities of about 37.9% and 36.8% respectively - essentially a near-even contest.
The draw is available at 3.38, which implies roughly a 29.6% chance according to the bookmaker's pricing.
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold versus market consensus. The model's recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 actually shows a slight negative edge of -3.98%, so it should be viewed as a close-to-market lean rather than a clear value play.
Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense takes place Sat · 19:30 in the Brasileirão.
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