Brasileirão · Sun · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.81 |
| 0-1 | 10.3% | 9.75 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.79 |
| 0-0 | 8.2% | 12.24 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.44 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.25 and 1.25. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Grêmio's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GRÊ | X | 2 · CRU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.57 | 2.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 3.53 | 2.38 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.90 | 3.54 | 2.36 |
| Coolbet | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Matchbook | 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.36 |
| GTbets | 3.09 | 3.52 | 2.21 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Grêmio host Cruzeiro in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Cruzeiro are priced at 2.17 for the win, translating to an implied probability of roughly 46%, while Grêmio's 3.1 price points to about 32%, and the draw at 3.45 sits near 29%. That gap suggests bookmakers see Cruzeiro as moderate favourites without being overwhelmingly dominant, leaving a competitive spread across all three outcomes. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 as the recommended angle. That price implies a bookmaker probability near 58%, while the model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 54%, producing a value edge of -5.97%. In other words, the data points to goals being a plausible theme, but the numbers themselves suggest the market may already be pricing this outcome efficiently or slightly ahead of the model's own estimate.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Bragantino-SP | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05, with a 47% confidence rating.
Grêmio vs Cruzeiro takes place Sun · 19:00 in the Brasileirão.
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