Brasileirão · Sat · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Atletico Mineiro's 1.53 price implies roughly 65% win probability, making them clear market favourites over Coritiba.
Coritiba's 6.0 odds imply only about 17% chance of an away win, with the draw priced at 4.0 (around 25%).
No match-result selection clears our value threshold, so no side is flagged as mispriced by the model.
The Under 2.5 goals pick at 1.94 has 48% modelled confidence but a -6.36% value edge, indicating the market price is slightly ahead of our rating rather than offering a clear edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 11.2% | 8.93 |
| 1-1 | 10.7% | 9.38 |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 9.62 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.11 |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 15.55 |
| 3-1 | 6.1% | 16.34 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.86 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Atletico Mineiro's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AM | X | 2 · COR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.56 | 4.30 | 6.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.52 | 4.43 | 6.34 |
| Coolbet | 1.50 | 4.30 | 6.75 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.51 | 4.25 | 6.50 |
| Matchbook | 1.52 | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.19 | 6.39 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atletico Mineiro host Coritiba in a Brasileirão fixture where the market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best available odds of 1.53 for an Atletico Mineiro win imply a win probability of roughly 65%, while Coritiba's 6.0 price points to only about 17% in the visitors' favour. The draw at 4.0 sits at roughly 25% implied probability, reflecting the gap in perceived quality between the two sides on paper, at least as the market sees it. Our model does not flag a match-result value pick here, since none of the three outcomes clear the value threshold. Instead, the recommended angle is a goals market: Under 2.5 at 1.94, carrying a modelled confidence of 48% but a negative value edge of -6.36%, meaning the price is a touch tighter than our rating suggests it should be. It is the most defensible lean from the data, not a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The data points to Atletico Mineiro as strong favourites, but the only model-backed angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.94, and even that carries a negative value edge of -6.36%. It's a reasonable, low-conviction lean rather than a strong value play, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Bragantino-SP | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 47% confidence rating.
Atletico Mineiro are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.53, which implies around a 65% win probability compared to Coritiba's roughly 17% at 6.0.
The draw is priced at 4.0, implying an approximate 25% probability according to the best available odds.
No match-result selection clears our value threshold. The model's main recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 1.94, though it carries a modelled confidence of 48% and a negative value edge of -6.36%, so it should be treated as a modest lean rather than a strong value opportunity.
Atletico Mineiro vs Coritiba takes place Sat · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.
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