Brasileirão · Sat · 21:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Botafogo's 1.4 price implies roughly 71% win probability, making them strong market favourites over Chapecoense.
Chapecoense's 7.0 odds imply only about 14% win probability, reflecting the scale of the market's preference for Botafogo.
The draw at 4.75 implies around 21% probability, a notable gap below Botafogo's win chance but above Chapecoense's.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.6 carries a modelled edge of -5.98%, meaning it does not clear the value threshold despite being the standout selection.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 10.25 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.57 |
| 3-0 | 8.1% | 12.36 |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
| 3-1 | 7.8% | 12.76 |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.49 and 0.97. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Botafogo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BOT | X | 2 · CHA |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets | 1.42 | 5.04 | 7.31 |
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 5.35 | 7.85 |
| Coolbet | 1.35 | 5.25 | 8.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| Matchbook | 1.34 | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.38 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Botafogo host Chapecoense in Brasileirão action with the betting market firmly behind the home side. At odds of 1.4, Botafogo are priced as heavy favourites, implying a win probability of roughly 71%. Chapecoense, by contrast, drift out to 7.0, translating to just over 14% implied probability, while the draw at 4.75 sits at about 21%. These numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, with the bookmakers expecting a comfortable home performance. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.6. That price implies a 62.5% break-even probability, though the model's own confidence sits at 59%, and the calculated edge is slightly negative. No standout value picks emerged elsewhere in the match-result market relative to the odds on offer.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 1.6 is the model's lead suggestion, backed by 59% confidence, but the negative edge of roughly -6% means it is not flagged as statistically favourable. Treat it as a measured, moderate-risk option rather than a clear value bet, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Bragantino-SP | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 58% confidence rating.
Botafogo are the clear favourites, priced at 1.4, which implies a win probability of about 71% according to the market.
The draw is available at 4.75, implying an approximate 21% probability based on the odds given.
No match-result selections met the value threshold in the data provided; the recommended play is Under 3.5 goals at 1.6, though its calculated edge is actually slightly negative at -5.98%.
Botafogo vs Chapecoense takes place Sat · 21:00 in the Brasileirão.
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