Brasileirão · Sun · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Flamengo are priced at 2.0, implying roughly a 50 percent chance of victory, the strongest implied probability of the three match outcomes.
Bahia and the draw share identical odds of 3.5, each implying about 28.6 percent, pointing to a competitive gap behind the favourite rather than a one-sided market view.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100 percent (around 107 percent), reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into these prices.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.73 carries a market-implied probability near 57.8 percent against a model confidence of 54 percent, resulting in a negative 6.18 percent value edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.02 |
| 0-1 | 11.5% | 8.68 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.06 |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
| 0-2 | 8.3% | 11.98 |
| 0-0 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.08 and 1.45. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Bahia's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BAH | X | 2 · FLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.32 | 3.79 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.26 | 3.77 | 2.10 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.37 | 3.80 | 2.04 |
| Coolbet | 3.30 | 3.85 | 2.05 |
| Matchbook | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Flamengo head to Bahia as clear favourites according to the betting market for this Brasileirão fixture, with the best price on the visitors sitting at 2.0, implying a probability of roughly 50 percent. Bahia and the draw are priced identically at 3.5, each translating to an implied chance of about 28.6 percent, suggesting the bookmakers see Flamengo as the stronger side but leave a meaningful gap for either an upset or a stalemate. Beyond the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 as the recommended angle. That price implies a bookmaker-assumed probability near 57.8 percent, while the model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 54 percent, producing a negative value edge. It is a pick worth weighing carefully rather than treating as a standout value play.
Verdict: Flamengo are favoured but not overwhelmingly so, with Bahia and the draw priced evenly behind them. The highlighted Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.73 has a negative value edge versus the model's own confidence, making it a plausible but not clearly advantageous pick; stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Bragantino-SP | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.22, with a 44% confidence rating.
Flamengo are the market favourites at 2.0, implying roughly a 50 percent win probability, compared with 28.6 percent each for Bahia and the draw at 3.5.
The draw is available at 3.5, the same price as a Bahia win, implying an estimated 28.6 percent probability.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet is priced at 1.73, implying about 57.8 percent probability, but the model's own confidence is 54 percent, giving a negative 6.18 percent edge rather than a clear value advantage.
Bahia vs Flamengo takes place Sun · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.
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