Brasileirão · Sun · 00:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Sao Paulo are priced as favourites at 2.35, implying roughly 42-43 percent win probability, the shortest of the three match-result outcomes
Vasco da Gama at 3.0 and the draw at 3.2 sit close together, implying probabilities of about 33 percent and 31 percent respectively, pointing to a competitive match on paper
The Over 2.5 goals price of 2.14 implies around 46-47 percent, slightly above the model's own 44 percent confidence figure
The recommended Over 2.5 bet carries a negative value edge of about -5.88 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a clear value opportunity by the model
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.03 |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | 8.24 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.98 |
| 2-0 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 0-1 | 8.5% | 11.72 |
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 12.05 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.46 and 1.03. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Sao Paulo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SP | X | 2 · VDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.44 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.11 | 3.55 | 3.41 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.18 | 3.62 | 3.17 |
| Coolbet | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Matchbook | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sao Paulo host Vasco da Gama in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Best odds of 2.35 on Sao Paulo imply a win probability of roughly 42-43 percent, compared with about 33 percent for Vasco at 3.0 and 31 percent for the draw at 3.2 - a fairly tight spread across all three outcomes. That congestion suggests bookmakers see this as a competitive match rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the win-draw-win market, the model's recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.14, which carries an implied probability near 46-47 percent against a modelled confidence of 44 percent. That gap produces a negative value edge of just under 6 percent, meaning the price doesn't clearly favour bettors by the model's own calculation, so this is a selection to weigh carefully rather than treat as an obvious edge.
Verdict: The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.14 as its lead suggestion, but the negative value edge of roughly -5.88 percent shows the price is not obviously generous relative to the model's own estimate. Treat this as a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident edge, and size any stake with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Bragantino-SP | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10, with a 46% confidence rating.
Sao Paulo are the market favourites at 2.35, which implies a win probability of roughly 42-43 percent, ahead of Vasco da Gama at 3.0 (about 33 percent) and the draw at 3.2 (about 31 percent).
The best available draw price is 3.2, implying an approximate 31 percent probability according to the market.
No standard value picks cleared the threshold in this match. The model's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.14, but it shows a negative value edge of about -5.88 percent, so it is not a confirmed value opportunity.
Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama takes place Sun · 00:00 in the Brasileirão.
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