Brasileirão · Fri · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Mirassol are priced shorter than Internacional (2.2 vs 3.1), implying the market sees them as moderate favourites at roughly 45% versus 32% for the visitors.
The draw at 3.4 implies about 29% probability, keeping the match-result market fairly tightly bunched between all three outcomes.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.92 carries a market-implied confidence of 49%, but the calculated value edge is -6.3%, indicating no clear pricing advantage.
No additional value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.4% | 8.03 |
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 2-0 | 9.7% | 10.32 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.65 |
| 0-0 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.56 and 0.97. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Mirassol's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MIR | X | 2 · INT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets | 2.30 | 3.41 | 3.22 |
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.53 | 3.23 |
| Coolbet | 2.17 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.41 | 3.37 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.28 | 3.36 | 3.20 |
| BetAnything | 2.28 | 3.36 | 3.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Mirassol host Internacional in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Unibet (SE) prices Mirassol at 2.2, which implies a win probability of roughly 45%, while Internacional drift out to 3.1 (around 32%) and the draw sits at 3.4 (about 29%). That spread suggests a competitive match on paper rather than a mismatch, with all three outcomes carrying meaningful weight in the market's eyes. Rather than picking a side in the result market, our model points to the total-goals line, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.92. That price reflects an implied confidence of 49% from the market, though our edge calculation actually shows a slightly negative value gap of -6.3%, meaning the model sees this as a fair-to-marginal price rather than a clear mispricing. No standout value picks emerged elsewhere in today's consensus check for this fixture.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.92 is the model's pick, but with a -6.3% value edge it should be viewed as a fair-priced option rather than a strong edge bet. Match-result odds show Mirassol favoured but not decisively, keeping this a reasonably open contest. Stake conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Bragantino-SP | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 50% confidence rating.
Mirassol are the market favourites at odds of 2.2 with Unibet (SE), implying around a 45% win probability, compared to Internacional at 3.1 (about 32%).
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Unibet (SE), which implies a probability of roughly 29%.
The only recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.92, but it carries a -6.3% value edge against market consensus, so it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity. No other picks cleared the site's value threshold for this game.
Mirassol vs Internacional takes place Fri · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.
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