Brasileirão · Sat · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Palmeiras are priced shortest at 2.2, implying roughly a 45% win probability, the strongest single outcome in this market.
Atletico Paranaense (3.2) and the draw (3.25) are closely matched, each implying around 31%, showing the market sees a genuine chance of either a home result or a split points outcome.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 carries a 46% implied confidence but a -6.23% value edge, meaning it does not clear our model's value threshold.
No value picks against market consensus were identified for the match-result market in this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.93 |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | 9.99 |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 10.47 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.02 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.59 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.18 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.26 and 1.32. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AP | X | 2 · PAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.23 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.35 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 3.13 | 3.41 | 2.29 |
| Coolbet | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Matchbook | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.23 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atletico Paranaense host Palmeiras in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Unibet (SE) prices Palmeiras at 2.2, which implies a win probability of roughly 45%, while Atletico Paranaense sit out at 3.2 (about 31% implied) and the draw is priced at 3.25 (around 31% implied). The gap between home and away prices suggests bookmakers expect Palmeiras to have the edge on the day, though the numbers leave plenty of room for an upset or a stalemate given how tightly the draw and home win are bunched. Away from the match result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 46%. The edge on this selection is actually negative versus market consensus, so it should be treated as a measured, data-informed lean rather than a strong signal. As always in Brazilian top-flight football, odds reflect probability, not certainty, and bankroll discipline remains sensible regardless of how confident a price looks.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, with 46% implied confidence but a negative value edge versus market consensus. This is a moderate-risk lean rather than a high-conviction play, and bettors should size stakes conservatively given the market pricing works against the model slightly here.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Bragantino-SP | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02, with a 48% confidence rating.
Palmeiras are the market favourites at odds of 2.2 with Unibet (SE), implying a win probability of about 45%, ahead of Atletico Paranaense at 3.2 and the draw at 3.25.
The draw is priced at 3.25 with Unibet (SE), implying an approximate 31% probability, very close to the implied probability for an Atletico Paranaense win.
No match-result value picks cleared the threshold. The model's featured bet, Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, actually shows a -6.23% value edge, so it is a measured suggestion rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras takes place Sat · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
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