Brasileirão · Sun · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.80 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.13 |
| 2-0 | 9.3% | 10.70 |
| 3-1 | 6.0% | 16.58 |
| 0-1 | 5.9% | 17.01 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.83 and 1.06. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Fluminense's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FLU | X | 2 · SAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.59 | 3.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.07 | 3.58 | 3.49 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.00 | 3.63 | 3.64 |
| Coolbet | 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Matchbook | 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| GTbets | 2.07 | 3.48 | 3.43 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Fluminense host Santos in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Unibet's best price of 1.88 on Fluminense implies a win probability of roughly 53%, while Santos at 4.00 reflects just a 25% chance in the eyes of the market. The draw, priced at 3.45, sits at around 29% implied probability, keeping that outcome firmly in play given the overround built into these odds. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 as the recommended angle for this clash. That price implies a touch over 52% probability, and the model's own confidence reading of 49% sits close to it, suggesting the line is roughly fair rather than clearly mispriced. With no outright value picks clearing our threshold on the 1X2 side, this match looks more like a goals-market proposition than a straightforward favourite bet, in a Brasileirão fixture where the home side holds the clearer market edge.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
| 18 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Bragantino-SP | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
Fluminense vs Santos takes place Sun · 19:00 in the Brasileirão.
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