Primeira Liga · Fri · 19:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Vitória SC are priced at 1.75 for the win, implying roughly 57% probability and marking them as clear market favourites
CS Maritimo's 4.9 price implies only about 20% winning probability, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides in the market's eyes
The draw at 3.56 implies close to 28%, sitting between the two win probabilities and worth considering given the home favourite's shorter price
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.08 carries a 46% model confidence but a -5.26% value edge, meaning the market price is not obviously generous relative to the model's own estimate
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.83 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 9.22 |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 10.38 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.81 |
| 0-0 | 8.2% | 12.21 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.30 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.33 and 1.18. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VS | X | 2 · CM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.72 | 3.56 | 4.70 |
| Betsson | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.65 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.65 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Vitória SC host CS Maritimo in a Primeira Liga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Vitória are priced at 1.75, which implies a win probability of roughly 57%, making them clear favourites for this home game. CS Maritimo sit at the opposite end at 4.9, translating to around a 20% chance of an away win, while the draw at 3.56 implies roughly 28%. Together these prices sketch a match the market expects Vitória to control, though a draw remains a live possibility given its relatively short odds compared to the away win. Our model's attention here is not on the match result but on the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.08 as the recommended angle, albeit with a modest negative value edge that bettors should weigh carefully before staking.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 2.08, but the negative value edge signals this is not a strong edge play, just a moderately supported angle. With Vitória favoured in the result market and the draw priced competitively, this looks like a fixture to approach with measured stakes rather than confidence in any single outcome.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 19:15 | Braga v Gil Vicente | 1.62 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| 24 Oct 14:30 | CF Estrela v Casa Pia | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 24 Oct 17:00 | Alverca v Arouca | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | Estoril v Moreirense FC | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Nacional v Braga | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Rio Ave FC v Famalicão | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| 25 Oct 20:30 | Sporting Lisbon v Académico de Viseu | 1.19 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 54% confidence rating.
Vitória SC are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.75, which implies roughly a 57% chance of a home win, compared to CS Maritimo's 4.9 price implying about 20%.
The draw is available at 3.56, implying an approximate 28% probability, sitting between the two teams' win chances as priced by the market.
The model's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.08 with 46% confidence, but it carries a -5.26% value edge, suggesting the price does not offer a clear advantage over the model's own probability estimate. No match-result selections met the site's value threshold for this fixture.
Vitória SC vs CS Maritimo takes place Fri · 19:45 in the Primeira Liga.
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