Primeira Liga · Sun · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Famalicão are priced at 1.88, implying roughly a 53% win probability and establishing them as the clear market favourites.
Rio Ave FC's 4.2 price implies around 24% win probability, a notable gap behind the away side.
The draw at 3.6 implies close to 28%, keeping a stalemate as a live alternative to a straight away win.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.93 carries a -5.54% value edge, meaning the model's 49% confidence trails the bookmaker's implied 52%, so it is not a clean value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 12.9% | 7.78 |
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.18 |
| 0-2 | 9.8% | 10.25 |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 10.78 |
| 0-0 | 8.5% | 11.81 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 12.42 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.95 and 1.52. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Rio Ave FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RAF | X | 2 · FAM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.83 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.95 | 3.45 | 1.85 |
| Betsson | 3.95 | 3.45 | 1.85 |
| 888sport | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.85 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Primeira Liga action brings Rio Ave FC and Famalicão together, with the betting market leaning firmly toward the visitors. Famalicão are priced at 1.88 with Coolbet, which implies a win probability of roughly 53%, making them clear favourites on paper. Rio Ave sit at 4.2, translating to an implied chance of about 24%, while the draw at 3.6 carries an implied probability near 28%. Those numbers show a match the market expects to tilt toward Famalicão, though the draw price keeps the hosts within realistic reach of at least a point. Away from the result market, the model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 as its recommended angle. That price implies a bookmaker-side probability of roughly 52%, slightly above the model's own 49% confidence reading, which is reflected in the negative value edge attached to the pick.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.93 is the model's pick, but its negative value edge means the market price is already slightly ahead of the model's own confidence. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong value angle, and size any stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 19:15 | Braga v Gil Vicente | 1.62 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| 23 Oct 19:45 | Vitória SC v CS Maritimo | 1.75 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 24 Oct 14:30 | CF Estrela v Casa Pia | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 24 Oct 17:00 | Alverca v Arouca | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | Estoril v Moreirense FC | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Nacional v Braga | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| 25 Oct 20:30 | Sporting Lisbon v Académico de Viseu | 1.19 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 49% confidence rating.
Famalicão are the market favourites at odds of 1.88, implying an approximate 53% win probability, well ahead of Rio Ave's 4.2 price and roughly 24% implied chance.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of close to 28%.
The model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.93, but it carries a -5.54% value edge, meaning its 49% confidence is actually slightly below the bookmaker's implied 52%, so it should not be treated as a strong value bet.
Rio Ave FC vs Famalicão takes place Sun · 18:00 in the Primeira Liga.
English 
