Primeira Liga · Sun · 20:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Sporting Lisbon's 1.19 price implies an approximate 84% win probability, reflecting a strongly one-sided market
Académico de Viseu's 15.0 price implies only about 6-7% win probability, among the longer away prices you will see in this league
The draw at 7.25 implies roughly 14%, suggesting bookmakers see little chance of a stalemate
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.06 carries a -5.38% value edge, indicating the model does not rate this as true value despite flagging it as the most relevant angle
| Bookmaker | 1 · SL | X | 2 · ADV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico | 1.15 | 7.80 | 14.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.19 | 6.10 | 14.50 |
| Betsson | 1.19 | 6.10 | 14.50 |
| 888sport | 1.17 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| William Hill | 1.17 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.16 | 7.10 | 13.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sporting Lisbon host Académico de Viseu in the Primeira Liga with the odds painting a one-sided picture before a ball is kicked. Coolbet prices Sporting at 1.19 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 84%, making them overwhelming favourites on paper. Académico de Viseu drift out to 15.0 with 888sport, implying around 6-7% chance of an away win, while the draw sits at 7.25 with Coolbet, implying roughly 14%. With the result market so heavily skewed, our model looks elsewhere for value and lands on Over 3.5 goals at 2.06 with Coolbet, a line that suggests this could be a fixture where Sporting's attacking superiority is expected to produce a high-scoring margin rather than a tight contest. The recommended bet carries a market-implied confidence of 46% and a value edge of -5.38%, meaning the model does not see this as a clear-cut value play, just the most reasonable angle given the lopsided match-result market.
Verdict: With the match-result market firmly favouring Sporting Lisbon, the model's lean toward Over 3.5 goals at 2.06 is a reasonable alternative angle rather than a strong value call, given its -5.38% edge and 46% implied confidence. Treat it as a moderate-risk option and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 19:15 | Braga v Gil Vicente | 1.62 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| 23 Oct 19:45 | Vitória SC v CS Maritimo | 1.75 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 24 Oct 14:30 | CF Estrela v Casa Pia | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 24 Oct 17:00 | Alverca v Arouca | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | Estoril v Moreirense FC | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Nacional v Braga | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Rio Ave FC v Famalicão | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.41, with a 67% confidence rating.
Sporting Lisbon are heavy favourites, priced at 1.19 with Coolbet, which implies roughly an 84% chance of victory according to the market.
The draw is available at 7.25 with Coolbet, implying an approximate 14% probability, well behind the home win in market expectation.
The model's recommended bet is Over 3.5 goals at 2.06, but it carries a -5.38% value edge, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity, just the most notable angle given the lopsided result market.
Sporting Lisbon vs Académico de Viseu takes place Sun · 20:30 in the Primeira Liga.
English 