Primeira Liga · Sat · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
CF Estrela are priced at 1.9, implying roughly a 52.6 percent win probability and clear market favouritism over Casa Pia.
Casa Pia's 4.2 price implies only about 23.8 percent, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
The draw at 3.6 implies close to 27.8 percent, making it a more realistic outcome than a Casa Pia win according to the market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.96 carries a negative value edge of -5.63 percent, meaning the model's own confidence (48 percent) is lower than the price implies, so it is not a clean value play.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CE | X | 2 · CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico | 1.77 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.82 | 3.48 | 4.20 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.82 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Betsson | 1.82 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| 888sport | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Primeira Liga action sees CF Estrela host Casa Pia, with the home side installed as a clear market favourite. At 1.9 for an Estrela win, the odds imply a win probability of roughly 52.6 percent, while Casa Pia's 4.2 price points to only about 23.8 percent. The draw, priced at 3.6, sits at an implied 27.8 percent, suggesting the bookmakers see a reasonable but secondary chance of a stalemate. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle here is goals rather than the winner: our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.96, which carries an implied probability near 51 percent. Notably, the model's own confidence reading of 48 percent sits below that implied figure, producing a negative value edge. That is worth keeping in mind as you weigh this Primeira Liga fixture rather than treating it as a one-sided call.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.96 is presented as the standout angle, but with the model's confidence below the odds-implied probability and a negative edge of -5.63 percent, this is not a strong statistical value bet. Treat it as a moderate-risk option and size stakes conservatively within your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 19:15 | Braga v Gil Vicente | 1.62 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| 23 Oct 19:45 | Vitória SC v CS Maritimo | 1.75 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 24 Oct 17:00 | Alverca v Arouca | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | Estoril v Moreirense FC | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Nacional v Braga | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Rio Ave FC v Famalicão | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| 25 Oct 20:30 | Sporting Lisbon v Académico de Viseu | 1.19 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 48% confidence rating.
CF Estrela are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.9, implying roughly a 52.6 percent chance of victory, compared with 23.8 percent implied for Casa Pia at 4.2.
The draw is available at 3.6, which implies an outcome probability of about 27.8 percent, making it more likely in market terms than a Casa Pia win.
No clear value picks meet the threshold in the match-result market; the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.96 actually shows a negative edge of -5.63 percent, so it should be approached with caution rather than as a confident value bet.
CF Estrela vs Casa Pia takes place Sat · 14:30 in the Primeira Liga.
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