Primeira Liga · Sun · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Estoril are priced at 1.95, implying roughly a 51% win probability and clear favourite status over Moreirense FC.
Moreirense FC's 4.0 price implies only around 25% win probability, reflecting underdog status in this matchup.
The draw at 3.52 implies approximately 28%, keeping that outcome a live possibility despite the home favouritism.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.96 carries a 48% model confidence against a roughly 51% implied probability, giving a slight negative edge of -5.36%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.22 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.55 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.95 |
| 0-1 | 8.1% | 12.33 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
| 1-2 | 7.1% | 14.14 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.50 and 1.16. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Estoril's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · EST | X | 2 · MF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.83 | 3.54 | 4.05 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| 888sport | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Estoril host Moreirense FC in a Primeira Liga clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Coolbet's 1.95 on Estoril implies a win probability of roughly 51%, while Moreirense FC at 4.0 reflects just a 25% chance according to the market. The draw, priced at 3.52 with Marathon Bet, sits at an implied 28%, suggesting bookmakers see a competitive but home-favoured contest. Away from the result market, the model's attention turns to goals: Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.96 with Coolbet, carrying an implied probability near 51%. The model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 48%, producing a modest negative value edge of -5.36%, meaning this pick is close to fair value rather than a clear market mispricing.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.96 is the only angle flagged by the model, but with a -5.36% edge it offers no clear statistical advantage over the market price. It's a reasonable, moderate-risk option rather than a standout value play, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 19:15 | Braga v Gil Vicente | 1.62 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| 23 Oct 19:45 | Vitória SC v CS Maritimo | 1.75 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 24 Oct 14:30 | CF Estrela v Casa Pia | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 24 Oct 17:00 | Alverca v Arouca | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Nacional v Braga | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Rio Ave FC v Famalicão | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| 25 Oct 20:30 | Sporting Lisbon v Académico de Viseu | 1.19 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 48% confidence rating.
Estoril are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.95 by Coolbet, which implies roughly a 51% chance of a home win, compared to about 25% for Moreirense FC at 4.0.
The draw is priced at 3.52 with Marathon Bet, implying an approximate 28% probability, keeping it a plausible outcome given the home side's edge isn't overwhelming.
The model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.96, but its own confidence of 48% is slightly below the price's implied probability, producing a small negative edge of -5.36%, so it's close to fair value rather than a strong value bet.
Estoril vs Moreirense FC takes place Sun · 15:30 in the Primeira Liga.
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