Primeira Liga · Sat · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Alverca are priced as favourites at 2.2, implying roughly 45% win probability, well ahead of Arouca's 3.25 (about 31%).
The draw at 3.5 implies close to 29%, keeping it a live but secondary outcome behind an Alverca win.
The combined implied probabilities across the three result markets sit slightly above 100%, reflecting normal bookmaker margin rather than unusual pricing.
The Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.91 carries an implied probability of about 52%, against a model confidence of 49%, giving a negative value edge of roughly -5.5%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.49 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.70 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.78 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.24 |
| 0-1 | 8.1% | 12.33 |
| 2-0 | 6.2% | 16.23 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.45 and 1.39. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Alverca's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ALV | X | 2 · ARO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.17 | 3.38 | 3.15 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betsson | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Alverca host Arouca in a Primeira Liga clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Coolbet's best price of 2.2 on Alverca implies a win probability of roughly 45%, noticeably higher than Arouca's 3.25 (about 31%) or the draw at 3.5 (about 29%). That gap suggests bookmakers see this as a moderately one-sided fixture rather than a pick-em. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle for this game is the goals total: William Hill's Over 2.5 goals price of 1.91 corresponds to an implied probability of roughly 52%, while the model's own confidence sits at 49%, producing a negative value edge of about -5.5%. In other words, the numbers here don't point to a standout mispriced opportunity, just a market that looks fairly balanced in its own pricing.
Verdict: The data favours Alverca on paper, but the headline recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 1.91, and even that comes with a slightly negative edge by the model's own numbers. It's a defensible, moderate-risk angle rather than a clear-cut value play, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 19:15 | Braga v Gil Vicente | 1.62 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| 23 Oct 19:45 | Vitória SC v CS Maritimo | 1.75 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 24 Oct 14:30 | CF Estrela v Casa Pia | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | Estoril v Moreirense FC | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Nacional v Braga | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Rio Ave FC v Famalicão | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| 25 Oct 20:30 | Sporting Lisbon v Académico de Viseu | 1.19 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 49% confidence rating.
Alverca are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.2 compared with 3.25 for Arouca, which implies roughly a 45% versus 31% win probability split.
The draw is available at 3.5, implying an approximate 29% probability, making it the least likely of the three outcomes according to the market.
No strong value pick is flagged from the match-result market. The featured Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.91 actually shows a slightly negative value edge of about -5.5%, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a clear edge.
Alverca vs Arouca takes place Sat · 17:00 in the Primeira Liga.
English 
