Primeira Liga · Sat · 19:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
FC Porto's 1.44 price implies a win probability of about 69 percent, a substantial gap over Gil Vicente's 8.0 (roughly 12-13 percent implied)
The draw at 4.4 implies around 23 percent, positioning it as a more plausible alternative to a Porto win than a Gil Vicente victory
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.93 carries a model confidence of 49 percent against a value edge of -5.54 percent, meaning the market price is not currently favourable relative to the model's own assessment
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus for the match-result market, indicating the bookmaker prices broadly align with expected outcomes here
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 16.2% | 6.16 |
| 0-2 | 12.3% | 8.10 |
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.60 |
| 0-0 | 10.7% | 9.37 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.30 |
| 1-0 | 7.6% | 13.07 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.72 and 1.52. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Gil Vicente's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GV | X | 2 · FP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.37 |
| Marathon Bet | 7.40 | 4.25 | 1.42 |
| Betsson | 7.30 | 4.30 | 1.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 7.30 | 4.30 | 1.40 |
| 888sport | 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Gil Vicente host FC Porto in a Primeira Liga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the balance of power. Porto are priced at 1.44 with 888sport, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 69 percent, making them clear favourites to leave with the points. Gil Vicente, by contrast, are out at 8.0 with Coolbet, implying around 12-13 percent, while the draw sits at 4.4, implying close to 23 percent. Those numbers paint a picture of a visiting side expected to dominate on paper, with the hosts given only an outside chance and a draw seen as a realistic but secondary outcome. Away from the match result market, our model's recommended angle for this game is Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 with Coolbet, a bet that doesn't hinge on predicting the winner but on overall goal output, and it's worth weighing alongside the short price on Porto before deciding how to approach the match.
Verdict: The data points to Porto as strong favourites, but the standout angle is the Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.93, despite its negative edge of -5.54 percent against the model's 49 percent confidence. This suggests caution rather than conviction; it's a defensible goals-market play, not a high-confidence value bet, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 19:15 | Braga v Gil Vicente | 1.62 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| 23 Oct 19:45 | Vitória SC v CS Maritimo | 1.75 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 24 Oct 14:30 | CF Estrela v Casa Pia | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 24 Oct 17:00 | Alverca v Arouca | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | Estoril v Moreirense FC | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Nacional v Braga | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Rio Ave FC v Famalicão | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| 25 Oct 20:30 | Sporting Lisbon v Académico de Viseu | 1.19 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 49% confidence rating.
FC Porto are strong favourites at 1.44 with 888sport, which implies a win probability of around 69 percent, well ahead of Gil Vicente's 8.0 price.
The draw is available at 4.4 with Coolbet, implying a probability of roughly 23 percent.
No match-result value picks cleared the threshold for this fixture. The model's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.93, though it carries a negative value edge of -5.54 percent against a 49 percent confidence level, so it should be treated as a measured option rather than a clear-cut value play.
Gil Vicente vs FC Porto takes place Sat · 19:30 in the Primeira Liga.
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