Primeira Liga · Sun · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Braga are strongly favoured at 1.5, implying roughly a 67 percent win probability compared to Nacional's 14 percent at 7.25.
The draw is priced at 4.3, translating to an implied probability of about 23 percent, a live secondary outcome given the price gap.
The recommended Under 2.5 Goals bet at 1.91 carries 49 percent implied confidence but a negative value edge of -5.51 percent versus the model's own rating.
No match-result selections met the value threshold, indicating the win/draw/win market is considered fairly priced by the model.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.76 |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | 9.20 |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 0-2 | 9.2% | 10.82 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 14.90 |
| 0-0 | 6.4% | 15.63 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.05 and 1.70. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Nacional's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NAC | X | 2 · BRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.42 |
| Marathon Bet | 6.40 | 4.20 | 1.47 |
| Betsson | 6.30 | 4.05 | 1.48 |
| Nordic Bet | 6.30 | 4.05 | 1.48 |
| 888sport | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Primeira Liga action sees Nacional host Braga in a fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the balance of power. Braga are priced at 1.5 with 888sport, which implies a win probability of around 67 percent, making them clear favourites. Nacional, at best odds of 7.25, are given only about a 14 percent chance by the market, while the draw at 4.3 sits at roughly 23 percent. With such a lopsided match-result market, our model instead looks toward the goals market, recommending Under 2.5 Goals at 1.91 with Marathon Bet. That selection carries a market-implied confidence of 49 percent, though the model's own value edge comes out slightly negative at -5.51 percent, suggesting the price does not offer a clear mathematical advantage over the market's own assessment. No match-result selections cleared our value threshold this time, reinforcing that the outright market is seen as efficiently priced.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 Goals pick at 1.91 is the only selection flagged, but with a negative value edge it is not presented as a standout opportunity, just a plausible outcome given a lopsided favourite scenario. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident value play, and size stakes conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 19:15 | Braga v Gil Vicente | 1.62 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| 23 Oct 19:45 | Vitória SC v CS Maritimo | 1.75 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 24 Oct 14:30 | CF Estrela v Casa Pia | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 24 Oct 17:00 | Alverca v Arouca | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | Estoril v Moreirense FC | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Rio Ave FC v Famalicão | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| 25 Oct 20:30 | Sporting Lisbon v Académico de Viseu | 1.19 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 49% confidence rating.
Braga are the clear favourites, priced at 1.5 with 888sport, which implies roughly a 67 percent chance of victory.
The draw is priced at 4.3 with Coolbet, implying an approximate 23 percent probability.
The model did not identify any match-result value picks above its threshold. Its one recommendation, Under 2.5 Goals at 1.91, actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -5.51 percent, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a strong edge play.
Nacional vs Braga takes place Sun · 18:00 in the Primeira Liga.
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