Primeira Liga · Mon · 19:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Braga's 1.62 price implies roughly 62 percent win probability, making them clear market favourites over Gil Vicente.
Gil Vicente's 6.0 odds imply under 17 percent, reflecting limited market confidence in an away win.
The draw at 3.9 implies about 26 percent, keeping a stalemate as a live secondary outcome despite the favourite tag.
The recommended Over 2.25 goals pick at 1.84 carries a model confidence of 52 percent against an implied 54 percent, producing a slim negative value edge of -3.94 percent rather than a true market inefficiency.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.7% | 7.87 |
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.94 |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 11.00 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.11 |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 11.26 |
| 0-1 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 0.99. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Braga's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BRA | X | 2 · GV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.61 | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| Coolbet | 1.62 | 3.85 | 5.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 3.82 | 5.85 |
| GTbets | 1.58 | 3.85 | 5.95 |
| Tipico | 1.55 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.55 | 3.86 | 5.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Braga host Gil Vicente in a Primeira Liga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Braga are priced at 1.62 with Coolbet, which implies a win probability of roughly 62 percent. Gil Vicente, by contrast, are out at 6.0 with Tipico, translating to just under 17 percent, while the draw sits at 3.9, around 26 percent. Those numbers paint a clear picture of a home side expected to control proceedings, though the draw price suggests bookmakers are not entirely dismissing a tighter contest. Away from the result market, our model points to the goals market, recommending Over 2.25 goals at 1.84 with Pinnacle. That price implies a bookmaker-side probability near 54 percent, with our model's own confidence pegged at 52 percent, a gap that actually produces a small negative value edge rather than a clear advantage.
Verdict: The data points to Braga as clear favourites, but the standout angle is the goals market. Over 2.25 goals at 1.84 is the model's pick, yet with a negative value edge of nearly 4 percent, this should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident value play. Bankroll discipline is advisable.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 19:45 | Vitória SC v CS Maritimo | 1.75 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 24 Oct 14:30 | CF Estrela v Casa Pia | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| 24 Oct 17:00 | Alverca v Arouca | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| 24 Oct 19:30 | Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 8.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| 25 Oct 15:30 | Estoril v Moreirense FC | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Nacional v Braga | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| 25 Oct 18:00 | Rio Ave FC v Famalicão | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| 25 Oct 20:30 | Sporting Lisbon v Académico de Viseu | 1.19 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | Acad. Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Amadora | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril Praia | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.25 goals at odds of 1.84, with a 52% confidence rating.
Braga are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.62, implying roughly a 62 percent chance of victory, compared with Gil Vicente's 6.0 price implying under 17 percent.
The draw is available at 3.9 with Tipico, which implies an approximate 26 percent probability according to the market.
No clear value picks against market consensus were identified above threshold. The model's recommended Over 2.25 goals bet at 1.84 actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -3.94 percent, so it should be approached with caution rather than as a confident edge.
Braga vs Gil Vicente takes place Mon · 19:15 in the Primeira Liga.
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