2. Bundesliga · Sat · 11:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Wolfsburg are priced at 1.79, implying roughly 56% win probability and clear favourite status for this 2. Bundesliga meeting
Heidenheim's 5.0 price implies only about 20% win probability, but the value analysis puts their fair probability at 23%, an edge of nearly 15%
The draw at 4.6 carries an implied probability of about 22% against a fair estimate of 22%, giving a smaller edge of 3.5%
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.06 shows a negative value edge of -5.38%, meaning the market price is marginally tighter than the model's calculated fair odds
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim to win | 4.79 | +16.6% | 24% | 67 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VW | X | 2 · 1FH |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.71 | 3.94 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.96 | 4.79 |
| Coolbet | 1.73 | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| Tipico | 1.65 | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.76 | 4.20 | 3.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
VfL Wolfsburg host 1. FC Heidenheim in a 2. Bundesliga clash where the market leans clearly toward the home side. Wolfsburg's best price of 1.79 implies a win probability of roughly 56%, making them strong favourites on paper, while Heidenheim's 5.0 odds put their implied chance at around 20%. The draw sits at 4.6, translating to about 22% implied probability, a gap that suggests bookmakers see this as a fairly one-sided affair rather than a tight contest. Away from the match-result market, our model points to a different angle entirely: Over 3.5 goals at 2.06, with a market-implied confidence of 46%, though the calculated value edge on that selection is slightly negative at -5.38%. That means the price doesn't quite match the model's own probability estimate, so it's a pick worth weighing carefully rather than following blindly.
Verdict: The data points to Wolfsburg as the clear favourite, but the highest statistical value lies with Heidenheim's long-priced away odds and, to a lesser extent, the draw. The model's own Over 3.5 goals tip carries negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident lean. Bet sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:30 | Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.34 |
| 16 Oct 16:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg | 3.29 | 4.20 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum | 2.30 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig | 2.18 | 3.95 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 18:30 | Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli | 2.21 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 | 2.25 | 4.00 | 3.05 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.56 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
VfL Wolfsburg are the clear market favourites, with best odds of 1.79 implying a win probability of around 56%, compared to Heidenheim's roughly 20% implied chance at 5.0.
The best available draw odds are 4.6, which implies a probability of about 22%, and the value analysis gives it a fair probability close to that, with a modest 3.5% edge.
Based on the data, Heidenheim's price of 5.0 carries a fair probability estimate of 23% versus an implied market probability of 20%, producing a value edge of nearly 15%, though their overall win chance remains the lowest of the three outcomes.
VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim takes place Sat · 11:00 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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