2. Bundesliga · Fri · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Hertha Berlin are priced shortest at 2.5, implying roughly a 40 percent win probability and marking them market favourites.
Holstein Kiel's 3.1 price implies about 32 percent, noticeably below the model's fair probability estimate of 37 percent.
The gap between market-implied and model-estimated probability for Kiel produces a value edge of 15.66 percent, the basis for the recommended bet.
The draw is priced at 4.0, implying around 25 percent, the least likely outcome according to the market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.65 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.61 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.20 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.27 |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
| 0-2 | 6.1% | 16.37 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.41 and 1.49. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · HK | X | 2 · HB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.75 | 4.00 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.87 | 4.07 | 2.20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.68 | 4.00 | 2.34 |
| Matchbook | 2.80 | 3.95 | 2.22 |
| Tipico | 2.85 | 3.90 | 2.20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.05 | 3.70 | 2.12 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Holstein Kiel host Hertha Berlin in a 2. Bundesliga clash where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Hertha Berlin's best price of 2.5 implies a win probability of roughly 40 percent, making them the nominal favourite on paper. Holstein Kiel, priced at 3.1, carry an implied probability of about 32 percent, while the draw at 4.0 suggests around 25 percent. Despite Hertha sitting at the top of the odds board, our model flags Holstein Kiel as the value angle, assigning a fair win probability of 37 percent against the market's 32 percent implied figure, a gap that produces a notable edge. This preview looks at how the numbers stack up ahead of kick-off and where the recommended bet fits within that pricing structure, without speculating on team news or form that isn't reflected in the odds themselves.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Holstein Kiel to win at 3.1, built on a 15.66 percent edge versus the market's implied probability. It is a value-driven underdog pick rather than a high-confidence selection, so it carries meaningful risk given Hertha's shorter price, and should be sized with sensible bankroll management.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg | 3.29 | 4.20 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.76 | 4.40 | 4.79 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum | 2.30 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig | 2.18 | 3.95 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 18:30 | Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli | 2.21 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 | 2.25 | 4.00 | 3.05 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.56 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.77, with a 54% confidence rating.
Hertha Berlin are favourites based on the odds, priced at 2.5 compared to Holstein Kiel's 3.1, implying roughly a 40 percent win chance for Hertha versus about 32 percent for Kiel.
The draw is available at 4.0, which implies an approximate 25 percent probability, making it the least backed outcome according to the market odds given.
According to the model, yes: Kiel's fair win probability is estimated at 37 percent against a market-implied 32 percent at odds of 3.1, producing a 15.66 percent edge, though this remains an underdog bet with inherent risk.
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin takes place Fri · 16:30 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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