2. Bundesliga · Sun · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Arminia Bielefeld are strong market favourites at 1.7, implying close to a 59 percent win probability, well ahead of the other two outcomes.
VfL Osnabrück's best price of 4.75 corresponds to a market-implied chance of about 21 percent, but the model's fair probability of 22 percent gives it a positive edge of 5.77 percent.
The draw at 4.3 also shows value, with a fair probability of 24 percent against an implied 23 percent, an edge of 4.19 percent.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.5 carries a negative edge of -3.56 percent, suggesting the price does not fully compensate for the model's estimated 39 percent confidence.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabrück to win | 4.70 | +10.9% | 24% | 62 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AB | X | 2 · VO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 4.03 | 4.38 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.72 | 4.10 | 4.42 |
| Coolbet | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| Tipico | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Arminia Bielefeld host VfL Osnabrück in a 2. Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Bielefeld are priced at 1.7 with Tipico, which implies a win probability of roughly 59 percent, a clear sign that bookmakers expect the home side to control proceedings. Osnabrück, by contrast, are out at 4.75 with Coolbet, translating to an implied chance of just over 21 percent, while the draw sits at 4.3, implying around 23 percent. Beyond the straight match-result market, our model points to the Under 2.5 goals line at 2.5 with William Hill as the recommended angle, though it carries only a 39 percent implied confidence and a negative value edge of -3.56 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value play. The more interesting numbers appear in the value section, where both the draw and an Osnabrück win show modest positive edges against the market consensus.
Verdict: The data points to Bielefeld as clear favourites, but the flagged value sits with the draw and an Osnabrück upset rather than the home win itself. The suggested Under 2.5 goals bet is a lower-conviction pick given its negative edge, so it should be treated as speculative rather than a core selection. Stake sizes should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:30 | Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.34 |
| 16 Oct 16:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg | 3.29 | 4.20 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.76 | 4.40 | 4.79 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum | 2.30 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig | 2.18 | 3.95 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 18:30 | Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli | 2.21 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 | 2.25 | 4.00 | 3.05 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.56 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57, with a 60% confidence rating.
Arminia Bielefeld are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.7, which implies a win probability of close to 59 percent.
The draw is available at 4.3 with Coolbet, implying a probability of around 23 percent, and the model gives it a slightly higher fair probability of 24 percent, a modest value edge of 4.19 percent.
According to the data, Osnabrück's best price of 4.75 offers a value edge of 5.77 percent against the model's fair probability of 22 percent, making it the standout value pick, though it remains a clear underdog position.
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück takes place Sun · 11:30 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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