2. Bundesliga · Fri · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Nürnberg's 2.02 price implies close to a 49-50% win probability, making them the clear market favourite over Cottbus.
Cottbus at 3.5 implies roughly 28-29% and carries a small positive value edge of 3.16% versus the model's fair probability of 29%.
The draw is priced at 3.85, implying around 26%, keeping the match-result market fairly tight between draw and away outcomes.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.1 has a market-implied confidence of 45% but a negative edge of -6.05%, suggesting the price does not currently favour this selection.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FEC | X | 2 · 1FN |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 3.17 | 4.05 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.29 | 4.14 | 1.98 |
| Coolbet | 3.20 | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.15 | 4.10 | 2.02 |
| Matchbook | 3.20 | 3.95 | 2.02 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.25 | 3.95 | 2.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This 2. Bundesliga clash between FC Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg sees the visitors installed as clear favourites by the market, with Nürnberg priced at 2.02 for the win, implying a probability of roughly 49-50%. Cottbus, at 3.5, sit at around 28-29% implied chance, while the draw at 3.85 carries an implied probability near 26%. These figures reflect a fairly one-sided expectation from bookmakers heading into kick-off. Our model also flags an alternative angle away from the match result: a bet on over 3.5 total goals at 2.1, though this comes with a market-implied confidence of 45% and a negative value edge of just over 6%, meaning it is not currently flagged as strong value. Meanwhile, Cottbus's price of 3.5 shows a modest positive edge against the model's fair probability estimate of 29%, worth noting for those weighing up the outright market.
Verdict: The model highlights Over 3.5 goals at 2.1, but with a negative value edge of around 6%, this is not a standout opportunity by its own metrics. Cottbus's outright price offers a small theoretical edge instead. Either angle carries real risk given Nürnberg's status as clear favourites; stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:30 | Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.76 | 4.40 | 4.79 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum | 2.30 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig | 2.18 | 3.95 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 18:30 | Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli | 2.21 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 | 2.25 | 4.00 | 3.05 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.56 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.90, with a 51% confidence rating.
1. FC Nurnberg are the clear market favourites, priced at 2.02, which implies roughly a 49-50% chance of winning according to the odds.
The draw is available at 3.85, implying an approximate 26% probability based on the best odds listed.
The data shows a small positive edge of 3.16% on Cottbus at 3.5 against a 29% fair probability estimate, while the suggested Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.1 actually shows a negative edge of about -6%, so value is mixed rather than clearly favourable.
FC Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg takes place Fri · 16:30 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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