2. Bundesliga · Sat · 11:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Kaiserslautern's 2.35 best price implies roughly 42.5 percent win probability, the shortest of the three match-result outcomes.
Bochum's 3.2 price implies about 31 percent, with the model's fair probability estimate of 33 percent producing a positive edge of 4.78 percent.
The draw is priced at 3.7, implying around 27 percent, keeping all three outcomes within a relatively narrow band.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.65 carries a model confidence of 57 percent against an implied probability near 60.6 percent, giving a negative edge of -5.71 percent.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.78 |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 8.00 |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | 10.55 |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.48 |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 11.81 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.35 and 1.03. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · 1FK | X | 2 · VB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.14 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.30 | 3.56 | 3.00 |
| Coolbet | 2.17 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.68 | 3.19 |
| Tipico | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Kaiserslautern host VfL Bochum in a 2. Bundesliga clash where the betting market leans toward the home side. The best available price on Kaiserslautern, 2.35, implies a win probability of roughly 42.5 percent, making them the nominal favourites over Bochum, whose 3.2 best price implies about 31 percent, and the draw at 3.7 implies around 27 percent. None of the three outcomes dominates the market, which points to a fixture seen as fairly open rather than one-sided. Our model's headline recommendation sits away from the match-result market altogether, favouring Over 2.5 goals at 1.65, a price that implies close to 60.6 percent, though the model's own confidence reading of 57 percent and a negative value edge suggest the goals line is priced slightly ahead of what the data supports. Elsewhere, the numbers flag Bochum's price as containing some value relative to the model's fair assessment.
Verdict: The model's featured angle, Over 2.5 goals at 1.65, shows a modest negative edge, meaning the price is slightly tighter than the model's own confidence would justify, so this is not a standout value play. The more interesting data point is Bochum's match-result price, which carries a positive edge worth weighing, though stakes should remain measured given the overall tightness of the market.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:30 | Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.34 |
| 16 Oct 16:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg | 3.29 | 4.20 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.76 | 4.40 | 4.79 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig | 2.18 | 3.95 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 18:30 | Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli | 2.21 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 | 2.25 | 4.00 | 3.05 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.56 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 44% confidence rating.
Kaiserslautern are the market favourites, with a best price of 2.35 implying a win probability of around 42.5 percent, ahead of Bochum's implied 31 percent and the draw's implied 27 percent.
The best available draw price is 3.7, which implies a probability of roughly 27 percent, close to but slightly below Bochum's implied win chance.
According to the data, Bochum's best price of 3.2 corresponds to a fair probability of 33 percent against an implied 31 percent, producing a positive edge of 4.78 percent, though this reflects model estimates rather than certainty.
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum takes place Sat · 11:00 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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