2. Bundesliga · Sun · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Dresden are the narrow market favourites at 2.53, with Magdeburg close behind at 2.8, leaving only a few percentage points between the two sides' implied win probabilities (39.5% vs 35.7%).
The draw at 3.85 is priced as the least probable single outcome, implied at roughly 26%, suggesting bookmakers see a tight contest but not necessarily a stalemate.
The overround across the three-way market is minimal, indicating prices are fairly aligned and no outright value has been identified on the match-result market.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick carries a negative value edge of -6.04%, meaning the model's 43% confidence sits below the 45% implied by the 2.2 price, so it should be treated as a directional idea rather than a clear mathematical edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.3% | 10.71 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.17 |
| 1-2 | 7.1% | 13.99 |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | 14.60 |
| 1-0 | 6.1% | 16.37 |
| 2-0 | 5.9% | 17.09 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.92 and 1.53. These six scorelines cover 44% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DD | X | 2 · 1FM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.64 | 2.62 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Coolbet | 2.45 | 3.85 | 2.60 |
| Tipico | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.23 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.23 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Dynamo Dresden host 1. FC Magdeburg in a 2. Bundesliga clash where the match-result market is unusually tight. Pinnacle's 2.53 on Dresden implies a win probability of roughly 39.5%, while Unibet's 2.8 on Magdeburg puts the visitors at around 35.7%. The draw, priced at 3.85 with Coolbet, is seen as the least likely outcome at about 26%. With no side strongly favoured, the model steers away from the 1X2 market entirely and instead flags Over 3.5 goals at 2.2 with Tipico as its recommended angle, built around a goals-based read of the fixture rather than a pick on who wins. That price implies a bookmaker probability near 45%, against which the model's own confidence sits a touch lower.
Verdict: The suggested play, Over 3.5 goals at 2.2, is offered with a 43% confidence level against a market-implied 45%, producing a negative edge. It is not flagged as a value bet and should be approached cautiously, with sensible stake sizing given the shortfall against the price.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:30 | Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.34 |
| 16 Oct 16:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg | 3.29 | 4.20 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.76 | 4.40 | 4.79 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum | 2.30 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig | 2.18 | 3.95 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 18:30 | Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli | 2.21 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 | 2.25 | 4.00 | 3.05 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.25, with a 42% confidence rating.
Dynamo Dresden are the slight market favourites, priced at 2.53 (around 39.5% implied probability) compared to 2.8 for Magdeburg (about 35.7%), making this a closely matched contest on paper.
The draw is available at 3.85 with Coolbet, implying a probability of roughly 26%, making it the least likely single outcome according to the market.
No clear value picks were identified above the threshold in the match-result market. The model's recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.2, though this carries a negative value edge of -6.04% rather than a confirmed edge.
Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg takes place Sun · 11:30 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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