2. Bundesliga · Sat · 11:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Fürth are market favourites at 2.12, implying about 47% win probability, well above Braunschweig's 30% at 3.3
The draw is priced at 3.7, an implied 27% chance, keeping the outcome far from a formality for either side
The Over 3.5 goals recommendation at 2.3 carries a 41% model confidence versus a 43% break-even requirement, producing a -5.29% edge
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold, so none are flagged as statistically favourable against market consensus
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.6% | 10.41 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.16 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.70 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.68 |
| 1-0 | 6.3% | 15.82 |
| 2-0 | 5.9% | 16.98 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.86 and 1.52. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GF | X | 2 · EB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.18 | 3.95 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.84 | 3.03 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.15 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| Coolbet | 2.12 | 3.85 | 3.10 |
| Tipico | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.17 | 3.65 | 3.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Greuther Fürth host Eintracht Braunschweig in a 2. Bundesliga clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Fürth's best price of 2.12 translates to an implied probability of roughly 47%, noticeably higher than Braunschweig's 3.3 (about 30%) and the draw at 3.7 (around 27%). That gap suggests bookmakers expect Fürth to control proceedings at home, though a near-30% draw chance keeps the match-result market from being one-sided. Away from the win-draw-win market, our model's featured angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.3, implying a 43% break-even probability against a model confidence of 41%. That mismatch produces a negative value edge of -5.29%, meaning the model itself does not rate this as a genuine value play, just the most notable signal from the available data. Bettors should weigh this context carefully before acting on it.
Verdict: The highlighted angle, Over 3.5 goals at 2.3, is offered more as a data point than a strong recommendation, since the model's own 41% confidence falls short of the 43% implied by the odds, leaving a negative edge. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident pick, and size any stake conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:30 | Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.34 |
| 16 Oct 16:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg | 3.29 | 4.20 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.76 | 4.40 | 4.79 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum | 2.30 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 18:30 | Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli | 2.21 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Karlsruher SC v SV Darmstadt 98 | 2.25 | 4.00 | 3.05 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.56 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.31, with a 41% confidence rating.
Greuther Fürth are priced as favourites at 2.12, implying roughly a 47% chance of victory, compared with Braunschweig's 3.3 (about 30%) and the draw at 3.7 (about 27%).
The draw is available at 3.7, which implies an approximate 27% probability according to the market.
No match-result selection clears the model's value threshold. The only flagged market angle, Over 3.5 goals at 2.3, actually shows a negative edge of -5.29%, meaning it is not considered a strong value pick either.
Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig takes place Sat · 11:00 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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