2. Bundesliga · Sun · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Karlsruher are priced as favourites at 2.25, translating to an implied win probability of about 44%, compared with Darmstadt's 3.05 (around 33%)
The draw at 4.0 implies roughly 25% probability, keeping all three match-result outcomes reasonably live according to the market
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.03 carries an implied probability near 49%, slightly above the model's own 46% confidence reading, producing a negative value edge of about -5.73%
No other markets around this fixture returned a value pick above the site's threshold, limiting the data-backed angles to the goals market
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.4% | 9.58 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.70 |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.29 |
| 0-1 | 6.7% | 14.93 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 15.02 |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 15.67 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.56 and 1.64. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · KS | X | 2 · SD9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.25 | 4.00 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.88 | 2.92 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.22 | 3.88 | 2.92 |
| Tipico | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Karlsruher SC host SV Darmstadt 98 in a 2. Bundesliga meeting where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best prices put Karlsruher at 2.25, which implies a win probability of roughly 44%, while Darmstadt's 3.05 points to about 33%. The draw, priced at 4.0, carries an implied chance near 25%, keeping the outcome market fairly open across all three results. Rather than picking a side in the win-draw-win market, our model's featured angle looks at the goals total, flagging Over 3.5 goals at 2.03. That price implies a bookmaker-side probability of just under 50%, against a model confidence of 46%, so the suggestion comes with a modest negative edge rather than a clear mathematical advantage. No other selections in this fixture cleared our value threshold.
Verdict: The data points to Karlsruher as modest favourites, but the standout angle here is Over 3.5 goals at 2.03, flagged more for market context than genuine edge, since its implied probability sits above the model's own 46% estimate. Treat it as a speculative, data-informed option rather than a high-confidence play, and size any stake with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 16:30 | Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.34 |
| 16 Oct 16:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg | 3.29 | 4.20 | 2.05 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.76 | 4.40 | 4.79 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum | 2.30 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 11:00 | Greuther Fürth v Eintracht Braunschweig | 2.18 | 3.95 | 3.20 |
| 17 Oct 18:30 | Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli | 2.21 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| 18 Oct 11:30 | Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.56 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.08, with a 46% confidence rating.
Karlsruher SC are the market favourites at best odds of 2.25, which implies a win probability of around 44%, compared with about 33% implied for Darmstadt at 3.05.
The draw is available at 4.0, implying roughly a 25% chance according to the market, the lowest implied probability of the three match-result outcomes.
The site's featured pick is Over 3.5 goals at 2.03, but it carries a negative value edge of about -5.73% since the model's 46% confidence is slightly below the odds' implied probability, so it should not be treated as a clear-cut value play.
Karlsruher SC vs SV Darmstadt 98 takes place Sun · 11:30 in the 2. Bundesliga.
English