Serie A · Sat · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Napoli's 1.67 price implies close to 60 percent win probability, making them the clear favourites over Venezia.
Venezia's 5.35 odds equate to roughly 18.7 percent, while the draw at 4.37 sits at about 22.9 percent, both reflecting long-shot outcomes relative to Napoli.
The recommended Under 2.75 goals bet at 1.92 carries a market-implied confidence of 49 percent, essentially a near coin-flip proposition.
This total-goals selection shows a negative value edge of -5.01 percent, meaning it does not clear the model's positive-value threshold despite being the top-rated option available.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia to win | 5.20 | +3.6% | 20% | 55 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VEN | X | 2 · NAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 5.10 | 4.20 | 1.74 |
| 1xBet | 5.04 | 4.32 | 1.71 |
| Betfair | 5.10 | 4.10 | 1.74 |
| Coolbet | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.74 |
| Unibet (NL) | 5.20 | 4.20 | 1.65 |
| Unibet (SE) | 5.20 | 4.20 | 1.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Serie A visitors Napoli travel to Venezia as clear market favourites, with the best available price of 1.67 implying a win probability of roughly 60 percent. Venezia, by contrast, sit at 5.35, translating to about 18.7 percent, while the draw is priced at 4.37, or roughly 22.9 percent. Those numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, with the bookmakers expecting Napoli to control most of the game. Away from the result market, our model flags Under 2.75 goals at 1.92 as the recommended angle, suggesting the total could stay on the lower side despite Napoli's status as favourites. It's worth noting this pick carries a slightly negative value edge against the model's own benchmark, so it should be treated as a measured consideration rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The Under 2.75 goals pick at 1.92 is the only actionable angle from the data, but with 49 percent implied confidence and a negative value edge, it's a balanced rather than strongly favourable proposition. Bettors should size stakes cautiously given the modest statistical edge against it.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
| 19 Oct 16:30 | Monza v Cagliari | 2.50 | 3.27 | 3.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 51% confidence rating.
Napoli are strongly favoured according to the odds, priced at 1.67 which implies close to a 60 percent chance of victory, compared with Venezia's 5.35 (about 18.7 percent).
The draw is available at 4.37, which corresponds to an implied probability of roughly 22.9 percent.
The model's top recommendation, Under 2.75 goals at 1.92, actually shows a negative value edge of -5.01 percent, so no clear value pick is highlighted above the standard threshold for this game.
Venezia vs Napoli takes place Sat · 13:00 in the Serie A.
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