Serie A · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Roma's 1.34 price implies an approximate 75% win probability, making them heavy favourites over Genoa in this Serie A fixture.
Genoa's 9.9 odds imply only around a 10% chance of an away win, reflecting the market's strong lean toward Roma.
The draw, priced at 6.0, is flagged by the model as a value selection with a fair probability of 18% versus the market's implied 17%, an edge of 6.28%.
The recommended goals bet, Under 3.0 at 1.95, carries 49% model confidence but a negative edge of -5.07%, indicating the price is roughly in line with fair value rather than clearly attractive.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.7% | 7.29 |
| 2-0 | 13.6% | 7.35 |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | 10.60 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.68 |
| 3-0 | 9.0% | 11.10 |
| 0-0 | 6.9% | 14.47 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.99 and 0.69. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from AS Roma's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AR | X | 2 · GEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.00 |
| Betfair | 1.41 | 5.20 | 9.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.40 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.40 | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.40 | 5.20 | 8.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AS Roma head into this Serie A meeting with Genoa as clear favourites according to the betting market. Best available odds of 1.34 on a Roma win imply a win probability of roughly 75%, while Genoa's 9.9 price points to only about 10%, and the draw at 6.0 sits near 17%. Those numbers describe a heavily lopsided contest on paper, with bookmakers expecting the home side to control proceedings. Our model's recommended angle for this fixture isn't on the match result but on the goals market: Under 3.0 goals at 1.95 with Pinnacle, carrying a modelled confidence of 49% but a slightly negative value edge of -5.07%, meaning the price is close to fair rather than clearly favourable. Separately, the model flags the draw at 6.0 as a value pick, with a fair probability estimate of 18% against the market's implied 17%, producing a positive edge of 6.28% for those willing to back the underdog outcome.
Verdict: The Under 3.0 goals selection at 1.95 reflects a plausible low-scoring or moderate-scoring outcome given Roma's status as strong favourites, but the negative value edge means it is not a standout price. Bettors should treat it as a reasonable, moderate-risk option rather than a high-value opportunity, and manage stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
| 19 Oct 16:30 | Monza v Cagliari | 2.50 | 3.27 | 3.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
AS Roma are strong favourites, priced at 1.34, which implies a win probability of roughly 75%. Genoa, at 9.9, are priced as clear underdogs with an implied probability near 10%.
The best available draw price is 6.0 with Tipico, implying roughly a 17% chance, though the model's fair-value estimate puts it slightly higher at 18%, suggesting some value at that price.
According to the model, the draw offers a positive edge of about 6.28% at 6.0 odds. The recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 1.95 has a negative edge of -5.07%, meaning it's close to fair value rather than a strong value play.
AS Roma vs Genoa takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Serie A.
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