Serie A · Sun · 10:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Udinese are priced at 1.96 to win, implying just over a 51% chance according to the bookmaker's odds.
Lecce's 4.22 price implies roughly a 23.7% chance of an away win, positioning them as clear underdogs.
The draw at 3.75 implies about a 26.7% probability, keeping that outcome firmly in play statistically.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.92 carries a 51% implied confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.56%, meaning it is close to fair value rather than a standout price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.9% | 7.73 |
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.27 |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | 10.00 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.70 |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 11.96 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.79 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.55 and 0.94. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Udinese's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · UDI | X | 2 · LEC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.92 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.38 |
| Betfair | 1.92 | 3.55 | 4.60 |
| Coolbet | 1.92 | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | 3.59 | 4.31 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.87 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Serie A action brings Udinese and Lecce together, with the betting market clearly favouring the hosts. Udinese are priced at 1.96 for a home win, which implies a win probability of just over 51%, making them the clear favourite on paper. Lecce, at 4.22, are seen as outsiders with an implied chance of roughly 23.7%, while the draw at 3.75 carries an implied probability close to 26.7%. Those numbers show a fixture where the market leans toward Udinese but leaves a meaningful gap for either an upset or a stalemate. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model points toward the Under 2.5 goals line at 1.92, suggesting this could be a tighter, lower-scoring contest than the outright odds alone might indicate. The recommended angle sits at a market-implied confidence of 51%, with a slim negative value edge attached.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.92 reflects a fairly balanced view of this Serie A meeting, with implied confidence around 51% but a marginal negative edge. It is a reasonable, low-drama pick rather than a clear market inefficiency, so bettors should treat it as a moderate-risk option and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
| 19 Oct 16:30 | Monza v Cagliari | 2.50 | 3.27 | 3.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.12, with a 47% confidence rating.
Udinese are the clear favourite at 1.96, which implies just over a 51% chance of winning according to the market, compared to Lecce's 4.22 price implying about 23.7%.
The draw is priced at 3.75, which implies roughly a 26.7% probability of the match ending level.
No standout value picks were flagged against the market consensus. The model's recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.92, with a market-implied confidence of 51% but a slightly negative value edge of -1.56%, suggesting the price is close to fair rather than a clear edge.
Udinese vs Lecce takes place Sun · 10:30 in the Serie A.
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