Serie A · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Como are priced at 2.14, implying roughly 47 percent win probability, making them the market's clear favourite over Fiorentina at 3.45 (about 29 percent).
The draw at 3.86 implies close to 26 percent, keeping the outcome spread relatively competitive for a fixture with a clear favourite.
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold, so no side is flagged as mispriced by the model.
The Under 2.75 goals price of 1.98 implies just over 50 percent, slightly above the model's 48 percent confidence estimate, producing a small negative value edge of -4.9 percent.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 12.8% | 7.80 |
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.93 |
| 0-2 | 11.1% | 9.03 |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.48 |
| 1-0 | 6.5% | 15.43 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.87 and 1.73. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Fiorentina's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FIO | X | 2 · COM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.70 | 3.80 | 2.08 |
| 1xBet | 3.54 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| Coolbet | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.11 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.65 | 3.75 | 2.04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.65 | 3.75 | 2.04 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Serie A visitors Como head to Florence as the clear market favourites against Fiorentina, with the best price on Como at 2.14 implying a win probability of roughly 47 percent. Fiorentina's 3.45 odds put their own chances at closer to 29 percent, while the draw at 3.86 rounds out the market at around 26 percent, keeping this from being a heavily one-sided contest despite Como's edge. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model's recommended angle centres on the goals total, favouring Under 2.75 goals at 1.98 with Pinnacle. That price implies just over 50 percent probability, slightly above the model's own 48 percent confidence reading, which is why the flagged value edge sits at a modest negative 4.9 percent. It is a bet built on the numbers rather than any outside storyline, and it should be treated as a moderate-confidence lean rather than a strong-conviction call.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.75 goals at 1.98, but the data shows a slight negative edge of -4.9 percent, meaning the market price is marginally ahead of the model's own estimate. It is a defensible, low-to-moderate risk lean rather than a confident value bet, and bankroll discipline is worth keeping in mind.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
| 19 Oct 16:30 | Monza v Cagliari | 2.50 | 3.27 | 3.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.75 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 48% confidence rating.
Como are the favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.14 compared with 3.45 for Fiorentina, which implies roughly a 47 percent win probability for Como against about 29 percent for Fiorentina.
The best available draw price is 3.86, which implies an outcome probability of roughly 26 percent.
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold. The only flagged angle is Under 2.75 goals at 1.98, which actually carries a slight negative edge of -4.9 percent, so it should be seen as a moderate lean rather than a clear value bet.
Fiorentina vs Como takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Serie A.
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