Serie A · Mon · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Monza are market favourites at 2.45, implying roughly a 41% win probability, ahead of Cagliari's 30% implied chance at 3.38.
The draw is priced at 3.22, implying about 31%, keeping it a realistic outcome given how tightly the three prices cluster.
The recommended goals bet, Over 2.25 at 1.78, carries a market-implied confidence of 53% but a negative value edge of -4.94%, meaning the price does not clearly favour bettors by the model's own measure.
No value picks against the wider market consensus met the site's threshold for this fixture, so no additional angles are being pushed.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari to win | 3.46 | +4.3% | 30% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MON | X | 2 · CAG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.50 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.48 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.27 | 3.46 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.48 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.48 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Coolbet | 2.44 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Monza host Cagliari in a Serie A fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best prices show Monza at 2.45, which implies a win probability of roughly 41%, while Cagliari at 3.38 implies about 30%, and the draw at 3.22 sits close behind at around 31%. That spread points to a competitive, three-way open contest rather than a lopsided one. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.25 goals at 1.78 with the bookmaker as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 53%. Notably, the model's own value edge on this selection is slightly negative, so this is presented as a reasoned lean rather than a market inefficiency to exploit. No side-market value picks cleared our threshold for this game.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.25 goals at 1.78 as its lead angle, backed by 53% implied confidence, though the -4.94% value edge shows it is not a clear market inefficiency. Combined with a tight three-way match-result market, this fixture looks competitive rather than one-sided, so stakes should be sized cautiously.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.25 goals at odds of 1.84, with a 53% confidence rating.
Monza are the market favourites at odds of 2.45, which implies roughly a 41% chance of winning, ahead of Cagliari's implied 30% chance at 3.38.
The draw is available at 3.22, which implies an outcome probability of around 31%, keeping it competitive with both match-result prices.
The site's recommended selection is Over 2.25 goals at 1.78 with 53% implied confidence, but this comes with a slightly negative value edge of -4.94%, so no clear value picks against market consensus were identified for this fixture.
Monza vs Cagliari takes place Mon · 16:30 in the Serie A.
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