English ⚽ Serie A 🕒 Sun · 18:45
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.92
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 55%
AI Value edge 6.1% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Juventus are priced at 1.73, implying roughly 58 percent win probability, making them clear market favourites over Lazio.
02
Lazio's 5.25 price implies just under 19 percent, while the draw at 4.05 implies close to 25 percent, keeping the draw a live outcome.
03
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.98 carries a 50 percent model-implied confidence, essentially a coin-flip proposition.
04
The value edge on the Under 2.5 pick is slightly negative at -1.25 percent, and no other selections cleared the value threshold versus market consensus.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 44%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.3% | 6.99 |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.82 |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 9.44 |
| 2-0 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | 10.56 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.35 and 0.89. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio to win | 5.71 | +3.2% | 18% | 54 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
JUV Juventus WLDWW
20 Sept 26 vs Atalanta 2-0
13 Sept 26 @ Sassuolo 2-3
6 Sept 26 vs Milan 1-1
29 Aug 26 vs Parma 2-0
23 Aug 26 @ Frosinone 1-0
LAZ Lazio WDWWW
19 Sept 26 @ Venezia FC 2-0
12 Sept 26 vs Milan 2-2
7 Sept 26 @ Udinese 2-1
30 Aug 26 vs Genoa 1-0
24 Aug 26 @ Bologna 1-0
Head-to-head: Juventus v Lazio
Full H2H history → D 8 Feb 26
Juventus 2-2 LazioSerie A
L 26 Oct 25
Lazio 1-0 JuventusSerie A
W/D/L shown from Juventus's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · JUV | X | 2 · LAZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.73 | 3.90 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.71 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.71 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Coolbet | 1.70 | 3.90 | 5.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Juventus vs Lazio: match preview
Juventus host Lazio at home in a Serie A fixture where the betting market leans firmly toward the Bianconeri. At 1.73 for a Juventus win, the odds imply a probability of roughly 58 percent, well ahead of Lazio's 5.25 price, which points to only about 19 percent. The draw sits at 4.05, implying close to 25 percent, a reasonably live outcome given the gap between the two sides in the win markets. Away from the result market, the recommended angle from our model is Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, priced at an implied 50.5 percent and carrying a model confidence of exactly 50 percent. That near-even split, combined with a slightly negative value edge of -1.25 percent, suggests this is a competitive rather than clear-cut proposition, best treated as a measured consideration rather than a standout selection.
Verdict: The market makes Juventus clear favourites against Lazio, with the draw priced more competitively than a Lazio win. The suggested Under 2.5 goals bet sits close to a genuine 50-50 shot with a mildly negative edge, so it should be viewed as a balanced, moderate-risk option rather than a confident value play. Bankroll discipline is advised.
Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 19 Oct 16:30 | Monza v Cagliari | 2.50 | 3.27 | 3.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Juventus vs Lazio?+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 55% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in the Juventus vs Lazio match odds?+
Juventus are the clear favourites at 1.73, which implies about a 58 percent chance of victory, compared to roughly 19 percent implied for Lazio at 5.25.
What is the draw priced at for Juventus vs Lazio?+
The draw is available at 4.05, implying an approximate 25 percent probability, making it more likely than a Lazio win according to the market.
Is there a value bet for this fixture?+
No selection cleared the value threshold against market consensus. The model's recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.98 has a roughly 50 percent implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.25 percent, so it is a balanced pick rather than a clear value opportunity.
When does the match kick off?+
Juventus vs Lazio takes place Sun · 18:45 in the Serie A.