Serie A · Fri · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Frosinone are priced as favourites at 2.52 (about 40 percent implied probability), ahead of Sassuolo at 3.02 (about 33 percent) and the draw at 3.46 (about 29 percent).
The gap between the two teams' implied win probabilities is under 7 percentage points, suggesting the market does not expect a one-sided contest.
The draw's implied probability of roughly 29 percent is close to Sassuolo's away-win price, reflecting a fixture the market sees as fairly open.
No value picks against market consensus cleared the site's threshold, and the recommended Over 2.75 goals bet itself shows a negative edge of 4.76 percent versus the model's fair-value line.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FRO | X | 2 · SAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.64 | 3.75 | 2.72 |
| 1xBet | 2.63 | 3.65 | 2.77 |
| Coolbet | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.72 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.50 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.50 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Frosinone host Sassuolo in a Serie A clash where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them a heavy favourite. Best odds available price Frosinone at 2.52, which implies a win probability of roughly 40 percent, while Sassuolo sit at 3.02 (about 33 percent) and the draw is priced at 3.46 (roughly 29 percent). Those numbers point to a competitive fixture rather than a mismatch, with only a modest gap separating home win, away win and draw. Away from the match-result market, the site's model flags Over 2.75 goals at 1.81 as its recommended angle, carrying a 53 percent confidence read but a negative value edge of almost 5 percent against Pinnacle's price, meaning the model itself sees the market as slightly ahead of its own fair-value estimate on this selection.
Verdict: The Over 2.75 goals pick at 1.81 reflects a 53 percent model confidence, but the negative 4.76 percent edge signals the market price is not clearly favourable by the model's own measure. Treat it as a moderate-risk goals-market lean rather than a strong recommendation, and size any stake with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
| 19 Oct 16:30 | Monza v Cagliari | 2.50 | 3.27 | 3.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
Frosinone are the market favourite at odds of 2.52, which implies a win probability of roughly 40 percent, compared with about 33 percent for Sassuolo.
The draw is priced at 3.46, which implies an approximate 29 percent chance, sitting between the two teams' win probabilities and pointing to a closely rated contest.
No value picks against the market consensus met the site's threshold. The model's featured recommendation, Over 2.75 goals at 1.81, actually carries a negative edge of about 4.76 percent, so it should be viewed with caution rather than as a strong value play.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo takes place Fri · 18:45 in the Serie A.
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