Serie A · Sun · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Milan's 1.86 price implies roughly a 54 percent chance of victory, the strongest single outcome on the board
Atalanta's 4.45 and the draw's 3.95 are closely matched, implying probabilities of about 22 percent and 25 percent respectively
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 carries an implied probability near 48 percent, almost in line with the model's 48 percent confidence figure
The value edge on that Under 2.5 selection is calculated at -1.48 percent, so no genuine market mispricing is indicated here
No side of the match-result market or any other selection clears the site's value threshold for this fixture
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.2% | 7.60 |
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.66 |
| 0-0 | 10.2% | 9.82 |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | 9.90 |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 11.76 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.29 and 0.99. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from AC Milan's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AM | X | 2 · AB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.22 |
| Matchbook | 1.91 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.92 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Coolbet | 1.90 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.74 | 4.25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.82 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Serie A brings AC Milan and Atalanta BC together in a fixture where the betting market has a clear view. Milan are priced at 1.86 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 54 percent, making them clear favourites over the visitors. Atalanta, at 4.45, are given an implied chance of around 22 percent, while the draw at 3.95 sits at about 25 percent, only marginally behind Atalanta's own price. Away from the straight match-result market, the model's featured angle for this game is Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, which corresponds to an implied probability near 48 percent. That price is close to the model's own confidence reading of 48 percent, and the calculated edge comes out slightly negative at -1.48 percent, meaning the selection is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency but rather a fairly balanced proposition on goal supply.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.07 is the closest thing to a structured angle here, but with a -1.48 percent edge it is not a value bet by the model's own measure, just a plausible outcome given the odds. Treat it as a moderate-risk, roughly coin-flip-adjacent selection rather than a confident lean, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
| 19 Oct 16:30 | Monza v Cagliari | 2.50 | 3.27 | 3.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 48% confidence rating.
AC Milan are favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.86, which implies an approximate 54 percent chance of winning, well ahead of Atalanta's implied 22 percent and the draw's 25 percent.
The draw is available at 3.95, implying a probability of roughly 25 percent, which is actually a touch higher than Atalanta's own implied win probability.
No selection clears the site's value threshold for this game. The featured pick, Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, has an implied probability close to the model's confidence level but shows a slightly negative edge of -1.48 percent, so it should be viewed as a reasonable option rather than a confirmed value play.
AC Milan vs Atalanta BC takes place Sun · 16:00 in the Serie A.
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