Serie A · Sat · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Inter Milan's 1.64 price implies roughly a 61% win probability, the clearest signal in this match-result market.
Bologna's 5.51 odds imply only about 18% winning chances, reflecting their underdog status against Inter.
The draw at 4.48 implies close to 22% probability, sitting between the two win outcomes as a live but secondary option.
The recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 1.8 carries a -4.82% value edge versus the model's 53% confidence, meaning it is not flagged as a clear value opportunity despite being the model's pick.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BOL | X | 2 · IM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.82 | 4.22 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 5.90 | 4.30 | 1.63 |
| Matchbook | 5.90 | 4.30 | 1.63 |
| Unibet (NL) | 5.75 | 4.25 | 1.63 |
| Unibet (SE) | 5.75 | 4.25 | 1.63 |
| Coolbet | 6.10 | 4.15 | 1.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Serie A action brings Bologna up against Inter Milan, with the betting market clearly leaning toward the visitors. Inter Milan are priced at 1.64 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 61%, making them strong favourites in this fixture. Bologna, by contrast, sit at 5.51, translating to an implied chance of about 18%, while the draw at 4.48 suggests a probability near 22%. Together these prices point to a match where Inter are expected to dominate on paper, though Serie A results can still surprise. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, recommending Under 3.0 goals at 1.8 with Pinnacle. That price implies a break-even probability of about 55.6%, against a model confidence of 53%, so this sits as a modest, data-driven lean rather than a standout value play.
Verdict: The Under 3.0 goals selection at 1.8 reflects the model's best available angle on this fixture, but with a negative value edge of -4.82% it is not a strong value bet, more a cautious lean. Given Inter's heavy favourite status in the result market, bettors should treat this as moderate-risk rather than high-confidence.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
| 19 Oct 16:30 | Monza v Cagliari | 2.50 | 3.27 | 3.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.75 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 47% confidence rating.
Inter Milan are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.64 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 61% chance of winning.
The draw is priced at 4.48 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 22% probability of that outcome.
The model highlights Under 3.0 goals at 1.8 as its recommended bet, but this carries a -4.82% value edge against a 53% confidence level, so it is presented as a modest lean rather than a strong value pick; no other selections met the value threshold.
Bologna vs Inter Milan takes place Sat · 16:00 in the Serie A.
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