Brasileirão · Sat · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.26 |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | 8.56 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.67 |
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 11.07 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.77 |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 13.25 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.55 and 1.04. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Vasco da Gama's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VDG | X | 2 · COR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.60 | 4.17 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.05 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.87 | 3.44 | 3.95 |
| 888sport | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.78 | 3.30 | 3.78 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Vasco da Gama host Corinthians in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds have Vasco priced at 1.91, which implies a win probability of just over 52 percent, making them the clear favourite on paper. Corinthians sit at 4.17, translating to roughly 24 percent, while the draw at 3.6 implies around 28 percent. Together these prices show a market that expects a competitive but Vasco-favoured contest rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, our model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, reflecting a near-even view of how open the game could be. It's worth noting this selection carries a slightly negative value edge against the model's own probability estimate, so it should be treated as one option among several rather than a standout pick.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02, with a 48% confidence rating.
Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians takes place Sat · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.
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