Serie A · Sun · 19:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Milan's 1.77 price implies roughly 56-57 percent win probability, the clearest signal in this match's pricing.
Udinese's 4.60 odds put their implied win chance at about 22 percent, reflecting underdog status.
The draw at 3.90 (around 26 percent implied) sits between the two win probabilities, typical for a favourite-vs-underdog Serie A match.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.90 carries a negative value edge of -5.0 percent, so it is not flagged as strong value despite being the model's top suggestion.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.05 |
| 0-1 | 11.4% | 8.76 |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 11.03 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.76 |
| 0-2 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
| 0-0 | 7.8% | 12.80 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.09 and 1.46. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Udinese's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · UDI | X | 2 · AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.68 | 3.91 | 1.83 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.50 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.50 | 3.65 | 1.85 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.55 | 3.80 | 1.78 |
| Pinnacle | 4.36 | 3.68 | 1.81 |
| Tipico | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.77 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Udinese host AC Milan in Serie A with the betting market firmly behind the visitors. Milan are priced at 1.77 for the win, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 56-57 percent, making them clear favourites heading into this fixture. Udinese sit at 4.60 (around 22 percent implied chance), while the draw is quoted at 3.90 (about 26 percent), a fairly standard spread for a side facing a stronger away team. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 as its recommended angle, though it carries a market-implied confidence of 50 percent and a value edge of -5.0 percent, meaning the price does not currently look generous relative to the model's own estimate. No side bets have cleared our value threshold elsewhere in the market. Bettors weighing this fixture should treat Milan as the stronger side on paper while recognising the goals market pick is more marginal than attractive.
Verdict: The model's lean toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 is offered as the most notable angle, but a -5.0 percent edge and 50 percent confidence mean it is not a standout value play. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident selection, and size any stake with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | 2.66 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Venezia v Napoli | 5.20 | 4.32 | 1.74 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Bologna v Inter Milan | 6.15 | 4.30 | 1.65 |
| 17 Oct 18:45 | AS Roma v Genoa | 1.41 | 5.30 | 9.05 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Udinese v Lecce | 1.95 | 3.65 | 4.60 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Fiorentina v Como | 3.70 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | AC Milan v Atalanta BC | 1.93 | 3.86 | 4.40 |
| 18 Oct 18:45 | Juventus v Lazio | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.97, with a 50% confidence rating.
AC Milan are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.77, implying a win probability of roughly 56-57 percent, compared with Udinese's 4.60 (about 22 percent).
The draw is available at 3.90 with Tipico, which implies an approximate 26 percent probability of the match ending level.
No selections cleared the site's value threshold in the match-result market. The highlighted Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.90 actually shows a -5.0 percent edge, so it should be viewed as a moderate idea rather than a confirmed value bet.
Udinese vs AC Milan takes place Sun · 19:45 in the Serie A.
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