Brasileirão · Sun · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Bragantino-SP is priced as favourite at 2.25, implying close to 44% win probability compared to Remo's 2.95 (about 34%).
The draw at 3.5 implies roughly 29%, keeping the three-way market fairly competitive rather than heavily skewed.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.7 carries an implied probability of about 59%, but the model assigns only 55% confidence.
A negative value edge of -5.65% on the Over 2.5 pick indicates the model sees this price as slightly unfavourable relative to its own estimate, not a standout value opportunity.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.87 |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | 9.36 |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | 10.58 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.74 |
| 0-0 | 8.0% | 12.58 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.26 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 1.19. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 3.75 | +3.5% | 28% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Remo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · REM | X | 2 · BRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.24 | 3.65 | 2.18 |
| Coolbet | 3.15 | 3.75 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 3.26 | 3.58 | 2.16 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.27 | 3.50 | 2.18 |
| GTbets | 3.09 | 3.46 | 2.21 |
| Matchbook | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.14 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Brasileirão action brings Remo and Bragantino-SP together in a fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Best prices from Unibet (SE) have Bragantino-SP at 2.25, translating to an implied probability of roughly 44%, while Remo sits at 2.95 (about 34%) and the draw is priced at 3.5 (around 29%). Those numbers point to a moderately favoured away side without suggesting a one-sided contest, since the gap between favourite and underdog is not dramatic. Rather than focusing on the match-result market, our model's headline angle here is a goals-based wager: Over 2.5 goals at 1.7, which corresponds to an implied probability near 59%, though the model's own confidence sits at 55% with a negative value edge. That combination suggests the pick is plausible but not a clear-cut market mispricing, so it should be weighed carefully rather than treated as an obvious lean.
Verdict: The match-result market favours Bragantino-SP without making them overwhelming favourites, while the draw remains a live outcome at 3.5. The model's Over 2.5 goals suggestion at 1.7 is the featured angle, but its negative value edge means this should be treated as a moderate-confidence option rather than a strong edge, warranting careful bankroll management.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 47% confidence rating.
Bragantino-SP is priced as favourite at 2.25, implying close to 44% probability, compared with Remo's 2.95 and roughly 34% implied chance.
The draw is available at 3.5, which implies an approximate 29% probability, keeping it a realistic outcome alongside the two teams.
The listed value picks show none above the site's threshold, and the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.7 actually carries a negative value edge of -5.65%, so any edge here is modest at best.
Remo vs Bragantino-SP takes place Sun · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
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