Brasileirão · Sun · 00:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Santos are priced as favourites at 2.29, implying roughly 44 percent win probability, the shortest price in the match-result market.
Bahia's 3.08 odds put their implied win chance at about 32 percent, while the draw at 3.57 sits near 28 percent, keeping the outcome fairly open.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 carries an implied probability near 50 percent, close to a coin-flip proposition.
The model's value edge on Under 2.5 goals is negative (-3.98%), meaning it does not currently qualify as a clear value bet against market pricing.
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold, so no explicit value picks are listed for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.55 |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | 10.56 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.83 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.39 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 13.48 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.83 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.58 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Santos's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SAN | X | 2 · BAH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.57 | 3.08 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.22 | 3.46 | 2.98 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.08 | 3.27 | 2.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Santos host Bahia in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best prices show Santos at 2.29, which implies a win probability of roughly 44 percent, ahead of Bahia at 3.08 (about 32 percent) and the draw at 3.57 (around 28 percent). That spread suggests bookmakers see this as a competitive match rather than a one-sided affair, with the draw priced closely enough to Bahia's win chance to stay relevant. Away from the result market, our model points to Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 as the recommended angle, implying a near 50 percent break-even probability. It's worth noting the model's own edge calculation here is slightly negative, so this should be treated as a measured option rather than a standout value play.
Verdict: The market frames Santos as moderate favourites over Bahia, with the draw still live at close to 28 percent implied probability. The highlighted Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 is a reasonable, low-drama option given its near-even implied odds, though its slightly negative value edge means it should be approached as a measured selection, not a confident value play. Bankroll discipline remains advisable.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 23:00 | Mirassol v Internacional | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.37 |
| 17 Oct 21:00 | Botafogo v Chapecoense | 1.42 | 5.40 | 8.26 |
| 17 Oct 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Coritiba | 1.56 | 4.43 | 6.75 |
| 17 Oct 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 18 Oct 00:00 | Sao Paulo v Vasco da Gama | 2.22 | 3.62 | 3.55 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Fluminense v Santos | 2.08 | 3.63 | 3.65 |
| 18 Oct 19:00 | Grêmio v Cruzeiro | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 21:30 | Bahia v Flamengo | 3.37 | 3.85 | 2.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitória | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02, with a 48% confidence rating.
Santos are the market favourites at odds of 2.29, which implies a win probability of about 44 percent, ahead of Bahia at 3.08 (around 32 percent).
The draw is priced at 3.57, implying roughly a 28 percent chance, making it a live but secondary outcome behind a Santos win in the market's view.
The site's model does not list any match-result value picks above its threshold for this game. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 has a slightly negative value edge of -3.98 percent, so it is offered as a reasonable option rather than a confirmed value bet.
Santos vs Bahia takes place Sun · 00:00 in the Brasileirão.
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